Shockwaves beyond conflict: War, supply chains, and the future of green industrialisation

What is unfolding today is far more than a regional conflict—it is exposing the structural fragility of the global economic and industrial system.
The Gulf is no longer only an energy hub; it has become a critical artery of global industrial flows. Disruptions in the region now ripple across global supply chains, affecting industries far beyond energy itself, from manufacturing and logistics to food systems and clean technologies.
This reality highlights a broader shift: the energy transition is no longer isolated from geopolitics—it is increasingly shaped by it.
For years, global green industries were built around efficiency. Manufacturing became highly concentrated, supply chains optimised, and costs steadily reduced through economies of scale. China emerged as the dominant manufacturing center for clean technologies, particularly in solar PV, batteries, wind components, and electrolysers.
While this model enabled rapid deployment and declining costs, it also created structural vulnerabilities.
Recent disruptions to energy flows, shipping routes, and logistics networks have demonstrated how quickly industrial systems can come under pressure. Rising freight costs, delayed deliveries, and supply uncertainty are already affecting renewable energy projects and increasing pressure on developers and investors worldwide.
What is emerging is not simply temporary market volatility, but a broader recognition that systems designed primarily for efficiency can become increasingly fragile under geopolitical stress.
The challenge extends beyond energy prices themselves. Industrial systems remain deeply dependent on secure energy flows and reliable access to critical industrial materials. The Gulf region continues to play a central role in supplying both.
At the same time, global renewable energy deployment continues to accelerate rapidly. However, this expansion is occurring against the backdrop of increasingly strained supply systems, where even short-term disruptions can create cascading delays across industrial and energy projects.
In this environment, resilience is becoming as important as efficiency.
The current landscape is also accelerating a wider industrial realignment, characterised by:
•Diversification of supply chains
•Regionalisation of manufacturing
•More assertive industrial policy
•Greater emphasis on strategic autonomy and industrial resilience
For the GCC, this transition presents both risks and opportunities.
While regional economies remain exposed to market volatility and supply-chain disruptions, the Gulf’s strategic position within global energy and trade systems also provides a significant advantage in the emerging industrial landscape.
Oman, in particular, stands at a pivotal moment. With industrial hubs such as Sohar and Duqm, expanding green energy deployment, and ambitious green hydrogen plans, the country is increasingly positioned to become a strategic node within future global green value chains.
However, long-term competitiveness will depend not only on deploying clean energy projects, but also on building resilient industrial ecosystems, strengthening domestic capabilities, and aligning infrastructure and policy frameworks with future industrial realities.
Ultimately, the next phase of green industrialisation will not be defined by cost competitiveness alone. Increasingly, it will depend on the ability of countries to combine resilience, industrial capacity, logistics infrastructure, and strategic coordination into a coherent long-term advantage.
The energy transition is no longer only a technical or environmental process—it has become deeply geopolitical, industrial, and strategic.