What next after a wild week in UK politics?

Despite the resignation of one Cabinet minister and demands from almost a quarter of Labour Party lawmakers that he stand aside, Britain’s beleaguered prime minister, Keir Starmer, remains in Downing Street.
When Wes Streeting quit as health secretary, he was scathing about Starmer, but did not trigger an immediate leadership contest. That suggested he had not gathered the requisite support of 81 Labour lawmakers.
On Saturday, Streeting confirmed that he intended to compete in a leadership contest if and when one was triggered. That may not happen for several weeks, however.
“We need a proper contest, with the best candidates on the field, and I’ll be standing,” he said to loud applause in an appearance at a left-leaning British think tank.
A former minister who has not been part of Starmer’s accident-prone government, Burnham is the only Labour politician significantly more popular than the prime minister, polls suggest. He also outperforms Nigel Farage, an ally of President Donald Trump and the leader of the right-wing populist Reform UK party, which is considered a serious threat to Labour after a recent set of elections.
But Burnham needs a seat in Parliament before he can fight for the leadership of his party and the country. On Thursday, a potential slot was found when a Labour lawmaker representing Makerfield, a district in northwest England, promised to resign. Burnham announced plans to fight for the seat in a special election.
Burnham can run, but the timetable hasn’t been set. The party’s governing National Executive Committee — which includes Starmer — on Friday approved Burnham's request to run in Makerfield.
This year, it blocked him from running in a special election in another northern seat, saying he should not quit as mayor of Greater Manchester because there would have to be an election to replace him. Many political analysts argued the real reason was that Starmer saw him as a threat, and several Labour Party figures have called the decision a mistake.
Burnham now needs to be selected by Labour activists locally.
Next, the government must set the special election. Given the preparation time needed, the earliest likely dates are June 18 or June 25.
Can Burnham beat Reform UK in a special election?
Assuming Burnham runs, this promises to be one of the most important and closely watched special parliamentary elections in decades.
Makerfield has voted for Labour lawmakers for decades. But the area is now heavily targeted by Reform, which came second there in the 2024 general election, only around 5,000 votes behind Labour.
And in recent local elections, Farage’s party secured more than half of all votes cast in Makerfield, according to the Manchester Evening News, while Labour won 23 per cent. The party will likely try to galvanise supporters of Brexit — for which Farage campaigned — by pointing to Burnham’s pro-European politics. Farage has promised that Reform would “throw absolutely everything” at the vote.
Precisely because running in Makerfield would be high risk for Burnham, it could also be high reward. Victory would prove that he could help Labour defeat Reform, which has led every national opinion poll for more than a year.
If he returns to Parliament, Burnham would be the favourite to succeed Starmer. Burnham’s northern roots may appeal to voters in the north and middle of England, some of whom are switching to Farage’s party. He is also seen as being to the left of Starmer. That could equip him to confront the challenge from Labour’s left flank, where the Green Party has won over disenchanted progressive voters. - New York Times