War’s environmental toll could outlast conflict: Report

MUSCAT, APRIL 20
The environmental consequences of the US-Israeli war on Iran are likely to have far more enduring impacts on the Gulf region than the conflict itself, according to a new analytical report by the Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSI), a Washington, DC-based independent research organisation.
Jointly authored by Dr Aisha Al Sarihi, an Omani researcher and policy expert, and Dr Naser Alsayed, an environmental policy researcher, the paper, titled ‘A Silent Casualty of War: The Rising Risk of Ecocide in the Gulf’, examines the ecological toll of the conflict in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions.
Beyond the immediate human and economic costs, the report highlights extensive environmental damage, including incidents that may amount to “ecocide,” defined as deliberate, long-term environmental harm during wartime. “The threat of ecocide is particularly acute in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, where its impact will extend far beyond the ‘day after’ the war,” the authors warn.
Attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf have heightened the risk of far-reaching environmental and economic fallout. Damage to oil and gas facilities and transport vessels could trigger large-scale oil spills, air pollution, and toxic contamination, affecting water resources, ecosystems, and key sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, and tourism. These impacts may also disrupt essential services, including freshwater production, posing risks to public health and livelihoods.
Critical infrastructure remains particularly exposed. Disruptions to desalination plants—on which the region heavily depends—could rapidly lead to severe water shortages, while incidents involving nuclear facilities carry the potential for long-term environmental contamination and health risks. Together, these threats underscore how damage to energy and water systems can undermine basic habitability and require substantial time and investment to address, the report points out.
According to the authors, the Gulf states have taken steps to strengthen their preparedness. Oman, for instance, established its National Committee for Natural Disasters in 1988 and further enhanced its capabilities with the creation of the National Centre for Emergency Management in 2020. Other GCC countries have similarly developed national disaster response frameworks, while the GCC General Secretariat has activated its Emergency Management Centre to monitor environmental and radiological risks and expanded cooperation with international partners on nuclear safety.
Oil spills remain a principal environmental concern. In response, Gulf countries have developed cooperative frameworks for emergency response, technology sharing, and expertise exchange. The Kuwait Regional Convention (1978) serves as a cornerstone of this collaboration, supported by the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment, which has coordinated major spill responses in the past.
Water security represents another critical vulnerability. With limited alternatives to desalination, countries rely heavily on strategic reserves, which vary significantly in capacity. Any prolonged disruption could strain supply in a region where water demand continues to grow.
The report also highlights the need for stronger engagement with international legal frameworks. While the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court does not currently recognise ecocide as a crime, proposals to include it are under discussion. The authors argue that Gulf states have a strong interest in advocating for its adoption to strengthen global safeguards against environmental harm in conflict.
“More than ever, it is clear that the Gulf must move from reactive to proactive environmental crisis management,” the authors conclude, calling for stronger coordination at both national and regional levels to enhance long-term resilience.