Stocks surge on ceasefire hopes; oil climbs higher

Stocks rose on Friday with investors still optimistic about the shaky US-Iran ceasefire ahead of weekend talks, though oil prices extended gains on worries over Israel's attacks on Lebanon and Saudi Arabia's warning about production capacity.
Tuesday's announcement of a two-week truce that would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened, having been closed since the start of the war, sparked a wave of euphoria across markets.
But hopes for an end to the crisis have been hit by squabbles over the agreement and the future of the key waterway, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned on Thursday against Iran's plan to charge a toll for ships passing through Hormuz, saying on social media: 'They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!'
In a second message just a few minutes later, he added that 'very quickly, you'll see Oil start flowing, with or without the help of Iran'.
He also said Tehran was 'doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz'.
Just 10 vessels have passed through the waterway since the Middle East war ceasefire took effect, according to maritime tracking data. Only one of those tankers is not Iranian.
Equity markets, which have been hammered since the war broke out on February 28, extended the week's gains.
Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul, Shanghai, Taipei, Singapore, Mumbai, Bangkok, Jakarta and Manila were all up along with London, Paris and Frankfurt. Sydney slipped with Wellington.
The gains followed a second healthy run-up on Wall Street.
Crude prices climbed, with West Texas Intermediate hitting $100, having briefly topped that level on Thursday.
Nervousness among oil traders also comes on Saudi Arabia's announcement that its production capacity had been cut owing to Iran's attacks on its infrastructure.
The kingdom's news agency said about 600,000 barrels a day had been hit, which Bloomberg said accounted for roughly a tenth of its usual exports.
Analysts said the equity gains were helped by news that Israel and Lebanon will hold talks next week in Washington.
That comes after NBC reported that Trump had asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a scale-back in strikes on its northern neighbour to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran.
'If an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire can be agreed, that is in turn likely to increase the chances of a US-Iran deal being struck, thus raising the likelihood of a swifter normalisation of commodity flows through the Strait of Hormuz', wrote Pepperstone's Michael Brown.
With stocks rising, IG market analyst Fabien Yip said those 'that suffered the deepest drawdowns during the conflict are likely candidates for the sharpest near-term recovery'.
But she warned: 'The ceasefire is temporary and the details remain sparse. Iran's 10-point proposal and Washington's stated positions retain substantial differences and the Islamabad talks carry no guarantee of success.
'Even the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — subject to Iran's 'technical limitations' — will take weeks, if not months, before shipping backlogs are cleared and supply chains normalise.
'Crude oil prices are therefore unlikely to revert to pre-war levels in the near term'.
The head of the International Monetary Fund said it will lower global growth forecasts owing to the conflict's 'scarring effects'. — AFP