How conflict is costing civilians and the global economy

The ongoing war in the Middle East is not just a conflict between the militaries of two countries; it is a war waged by two or three militaries against hapless civilians.
Right from the first day of this war on February 28, the targeting of a school in Iran resulted in the deaths of over 200 schoolchildren, adding to the hundreds of other civilian casualties recorded so far.
Such actions stand in direct defiance of the Geneva Convention of 1949, which dictates that persons taking no active part in hostilities — including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms or are hors de combat due to sickness or wounds — shall in all circumstances be treated humanely.
International law is clear: Any party to a conflict may establish shelters, either directly or through neutral states and humanitarian organisations, to protect wounded combatants and civilians who perform no work of a military character.
Furthermore, civilian hospitals organised to care for the wounded, the sick, infirm, and maternity cases may under no circumstances be the object of an attack; they must be respected and protected at all times. Yet, as of early April 2026, the conflict has resulted in staggering casualties.
Reports indicate that between 1,900 and 3,500 people have been killed in Iran, with Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) citing upwards of 3,540 deaths alongside thousands of injuries and massive infrastructure damage due to US-Israeli strikes.
These figures represent only the approximate toll within Iran. Thousands of civilians have also been killed in Israel and during related attacks across all Gulf states, including Oman.
The tragedy, however, extends beyond those in the immediate line of fire. Higher oil prices are threatening to push global economies into recession, triggering an inflationary crisis that severely impacts household finances and business stability.
As global economic activity grinds to a halt, the world becomes poorer. When citizens and businesses are forced to spend more on fuel and expensive electricity, spending on other essential needs is drastically reduced.
This fuel crisis inevitably drives up food prices; increased transportation costs and rising fertiliser prices make it harder for families to put food on the table. Furthermore, travel and tourism — major sources of income in recent years — will be badly affected by air travel disruptions, safety advisories, and fuel shortages. This shift leads to widespread job losses in both organised and unorganised sectors, proving that in modern warfare, the entire world is forced to pay the price.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates that the crisis is costing the region roughly $600 million per day. The losses are being driven by declining traveller confidence, flight suspensions and operational disruptions at key airports.
WTTC warned that even short-lived instability can carry significant economic consequences, affecting national economies, private businesses and employment across the sector.
European estimates suggest that if the conflict continues, tourism-related losses could surpass €40 billion, with international visitor numbers potentially falling short by 23 to 38 million compared to earlier forecasts.
Much more than the Russia-Ukraine war, the impacts of this war on global fertiliser production and trade are given their importance in agricultural productivity and food security.
The Gulf is a big production and exporting hub for fertiliser nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphate, which can hurt food prices.
Any sustained reduction in LNG production and/or shipments from the Gulf (Qatar supplies around 10 per cent of globally traded natural gas) will have significant implications for nitrogen fertiliser production worldwide. Natural gas is both a key feedstock and the primary energy source for producing ammonia, the building block for all nitrogen fertilisers.
So the casualties and the impact of this conflict have already crossed geographical limits.