Middle East war to slow down air travel, but intensity not clear: IATA
Published: 05:04 AM,Apr 01,2026 | EDITED : 09:04 AM,Apr 01,2026
Muscat: While international air travel demand rose 5.9 percent compared to February 2025, the capacity was up 5.3 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 80.5 percent (+0.5 compared to February 2025). which is expected to slow down in April based on the current situation in the Middle East.
As the region is a major connecting hub for Africa-Asia and Asia–Europe traffic flows, the reductions in the capacity are expected to exert continued downward pressure on global seat growth in the near term, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in its February data on global passenger demand.
“With an RPK expansion of 6.1%, February was a strong month, showing that the fundamentals for demand growth were in place for a positive year. However, without knowing the length and intensity of the war in the Middle East, it is impossible to quantify the full impact that it will have on airline prospects. But some things are already clear. Fuel costs have risen sharply. With tight capacity and thin margins, air fares are already rising. Capacity deployment is also adjusting, particularly for traffic to, from, or through the Middle East, or in areas where fuel supply is an issue. Capacity growth scheduled for March, for example, has eased to 3.3% from earlier predictions of more than 5%,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Global seat capacity expanded by 3.9 percent on YoY in February, but for March, global capacity growth eased to 3.3% YoY.
This represents a notable downward revision from the 5.2% YoY growth that had been projected in earlier schedules. The adjustment is primarily linked to the substantial capacity cuts by airlines operating in the Middle East, where the conflict in Iran and resulting airspace closures have forced carriers to cancel or reroute flights.
This represents a notable downward revision from the 5.2% YoY growth that had been projected in earlier schedules. The adjustment is primarily linked to the substantial capacity cuts by airlines operating in the Middle East, where the conflict in Iran and resulting airspace closures have forced carriers to cancel or reroute flights.
The Middle Eastern carriers, which saw a total passenger traffic growth of 0.8% YoY in February. The subdued performance reflects the impact of Ramadan, which started February 19 this year, compared to 28 February in 2025. Geopolitical tensions and safety concerns in the region in the lead-up to the Iran conflict could also be a factor.
According to the latest Long-Term Demand Projections made by IATA in March before the breakout of the Israel-US-Iran war, air travel demand was set to double worldwide by 2050. Projections were based on IATA’s global econometric model, incorporating factors such as GDP per capita, population, and airline capacity.
The forecast suggested that demand will exceed 20 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by 2050, up from 9 trillion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1%.
Muscat International Airport handled 2, 129, 229 passengers by the end of February 2026, compared to 2,098,074 passengers during the same period in 2025.