Trump strategic exit from the Iran quagmire

The ongoing debate about whether the Iran war will become a quagmire misses the point. President Donald Trump and America are already in one.
Yes, Trump can stop bombing Iran, but Iran might continue to block oil from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices would continue to soar, while fertiliser, generic drugs, helium and other products dependent on the strait would grow scarce, squeezing the American economy and world economy alike.
“The only way to end this war”, insists President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, is for America to make three huge concessions: recognise “Iran’s legitimate rights”, presumably to enrich uranium; pay war reparations to Iran; and provide international guarantees “against future aggression” against Iran.
I suspect the terms are negotiable. But Iranian officials are adamant that the war will continue until they are confident that they will not face attacks in the future. “The end of the war is in our hands”, said a senior Iranian military figure, saying this would come only if US forces left the Arabian Gulf.
This is not encouraging and I fear that Trump will try to extricate himself by escalating. He has ordered the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit to move to the area from the Indo-Pacific and one plausible use of those roughly 2,500 Marines would be to seize Kharg Island, the base of much of Iran’s oil industry. Back in 1988, Trump told The Guardian that the United States was too weak and that if he had been in charge, “I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it”.
A few days ago, Sen Lindsey Graham, a hawkish adviser to the White House, urged Trump to move on Kharg. “If Iran loses control or the ability to operate its oil infrastructure from Kharg Island, its economy is annihilated”, Graham posted. “He who controls Kharg Island, controls the destiny of this war”.
Another option would be for the Marines to seize several Iranian-occupied islands in the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to keep the strait open. But while the Marines might be able to seize Iranian territory, what then?
If Iran did not cave, would the Marines continue to occupy Iranian territory month after month as they took losses from Iranian missiles and drones? All the while, Iran might be able to continue to block oil from moving through the strait by intimidating shipowners with drone and missile strikes or mines laid by small boats or even traditional dhows.
Iran could escalate by calling on Yemen to block traffic through the Red Sea — further gumming up oil exports and international trade — and by striking other oil infrastructure in the region. We haven’t yet seen much in the way of cyber- or terrorist attacks by Iran, but I suspect we will.
Trump also seems to be considering inserting ground troops at Isfahan to try to recover highly enriched uranium stored there. That also would be extraordinarily risky, for it’s not even clear that the uranium is accessible.
Could Trump’s war still turn out all right? Of course. None of us can be sure what will happen. Iran could run out of drones and missiles, or our interventions could work perfectly, or there could be a coup tomorrow by moderate Iranian military officers seeking a deal with America.
But for now, Trump appears to have put America in a terrible situation, perhaps increasing the nuclear threat from Iran.
The previous supreme leader made the mistake of enriching uranium but never building a nuclear weapon; in effect, his nuclear programme went far enough to provoke the West into sanctions and military strikes but not far enough to provide protection. The new leadership may try to remedy that by rushing towards a nuclear weapon so as to actually provide deterrence. — The New York Times