Arab wisdom and the strategy of political independence

At a pivotal historical moment in the Middle East and with the year 2026 entering what has become the most dangerous military turning point in decades, the concept of 'Arab wisdom' has ceased to be merely a diplomatic term for media consumption or a temporary political maneuver.
Instead, it has transformed into a 'hard strategy' and a solid sovereign shield aimed at preventing the region from sliding into a comprehensive regional conflagration.
While Western powers, led by Washington under the Trump administration and the Israeli state, sought to push Arab capitals towards the option of a 'direct combat alliance' against Tehran, regional states chose an alternative path that demonstrated unprecedented political maturity, turning the 'blitzkrieg calculations' envisioned by the Pentagon into a costly strategic maze.
Amidst the Strait of Hormuz crisis that erupted in February 2026, a trilateral Arab coordination involving Riyadh, Cairo and Muscat emerged as a critical bloc firmly rejecting the transformation of Arab geography into a battlefield for settling Iranian–Israeli scores.
This coordination was not merely political; it translated militarily into the concept of 'offensive neutrality'.
Gulf countries realised that protecting their airspace and infrastructure is a sovereign right. Yet at the same time, they refused to turn their air bases into launching platforms for attacks against Iran.
This decision created a geo-military dilemma for the United States. Without nearby bases, Washington found itself forced to rely entirely on long-range bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles.
This alternative American strategy led to a rapid depletion of strategic stocks of precision-guided munitions — military assets Washington urgently needs to secure other active fronts in Ukraine, Taiwan and the South China Sea, raising significant doubts about the sustainability of the US air campaign.
Field developments in March 2026 indicate that the bet on overthrowing the Iranian regime through concentrated air strikes is a bet without results.
Since the strikes that targeted senior leadership in February, the Iranian internal front did not collapse as Western intelligence agencies had anticipated. On the contrary, the existential external threat strengthened the cohesion of the 'Temporary Leadership Council' and revived Iranian nationalist sentiment across the country.
The absence of a ground invasion option, which is entirely unlikely due to the enormous human cost that could reach millions of casualties and the financial burden that could break the global economy, has reduced air strikes to merely 'painful blows' that fail to end the regime but instead harden its resolve.
Thus, Arab wisdom concluded that supporting war would mean entering a war of attrition with no end, with Gulf cities and economies being the first to suffer the repercussions.
The diplomatic movement of this Arab triangle represents the cornerstone in preventing a major explosion, with Oman, Saudi Arabia and Egypt as the 'First Line of Defence' and sharing roles in precise coordination.
Oman emerged as a beacon of stability. Muscat did not limit itself to its traditional role as mediator but evolved into a global diplomatic operations room.
Since February, Oman has led shuttle diplomacy between Muscat and Rome to open secret communication channels between Tehran and Washington. Despite technical complications surrounding the nuclear file, the 'Omani breathing space' remained the only channel preventing the region from sliding towards a nuclear or chemical war, warning the world of catastrophic consequences that could not be contained.
Saudi Arabia has also embodied strategic independence. Riyadh is currently leading a transformation that places human development and economic progress above axis-based conflicts.
Since Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman’s visit to Tehran and his repeated meetings with Iranian officials, a decisive message has been sent to Washington: Vision 2030 is the absolute priority and the Kingdom will not allow development dreams in NEOM and AlUla to become missile targets because of the adventures of others.
Today, Riyadh is effectively imposing the 'Arab gateway' as the only path for any future regional security arrangements.
At this critical juncture, Egypt represents the weight of sovereignty and security.
Cairo has played the role of guardian of balances. President Abdel Fattah el Sisi warned that Egypt will not accept the continuation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis or tensions in the Bab Al Mandeb, which have affected Egypt’s economic lifeline — the Suez Canal.
Revenues declined by 60 per cent, costing the Egyptian budget $8 billion in losses. This direct damage pushed Egypt to use its influence in the United Nations and the African Union to press for a political solution that ensures freedom of navigation without militarising maritime corridors.