Why 11th Plan must marry speed with social balance

In the early phases of China’s economic rise, an instinct guided policy that is often overlooked in retrospective admiration: growth was never treated as an end in itself. When regional inequality widened or social strain became visible, Beijing slowed the tempo. Not because it doubted growth — but because it understood something deeper. If prosperity concentrates too quickly, if regions drift apart, or if households feel left behind, growth becomes fragile. Social stability is not a moral add-on to economic strategy; it is a precondition for durability.
Oman now stands at a comparable inflexion point. As the 11th Five-Year Plan begins and Oman Vision 2040 looms ahead, the ambition for higher, sustained GDP growth is clear. The target is necessary. Diversification must accelerate. Non-hydrocarbon output must expand. Private-sector dynamism must deepen. Yet the more urgent question is not whether we grow — but how we grow, and who experiences that growth.
Economic expansion that outpaces social balance can generate impressive statistics while quietly eroding cohesion. There is often a widening gap between macroeconomic indicators and what households actually feel in their daily lives. Growth can register in national accounts while remaining invisible at the kitchen table. Statistics can reassure policymakers; lived experience determines public confidence. Oman, therefore, faces a dual mandate: pursue visible growth while safeguarding the social determinants that make growth inclusive, resilient, and politically legitimate.
To translate Oman Vision 2040 into durable outcomes, five determinants must sit alongside macroeconomic indicators on policymakers’ dashboards. Firstly, income distribution and the shared lift. Growth that disproportionately benefits asset-holders or a narrow professional class weakens consumption and social trust. Median wages, particularly for younger and mid-income households, must rise alongside corporate earnings. Tracking dispersion between top and median income is not a social indulgence — it is macroeconomic prudence. Demand sustainability depends on it.
Secondly, youth transition into employment. This is not merely a social concern; it is a macroeconomic variable. The 11th plan rightly prioritises job creation and labour-market absorption. But headline employment targets must be matched by attention to time-to-first-job, quality of entry-level work, and the scale of structured apprenticeships within growth sectors. A graduate who waits extended periods for meaningful employment represents idle human capital and delayed productivity. The school-to-work pipeline should therefore be treated as a growth instrument in its own right — measured not only by the number of jobs created, but by how quickly and effectively young Omanis move into productive roles. In a growth strategy centred on non-hydrocarbon expansion, the speed and quality of youth integration into private-sector activity will ultimately determine whether investment translates into sustained output gains.
Thirdly, women’s economic participation. This remains Oman’s most underutilised growth lever. Participation is shaped by practical variables — childcare availability, commuting efficiency, workplace design, and recruitment practices. Raising female labour-force participation is not a symbolic reform; it directly expands the productive base and household resilience.
Fourthly, regional convergence. If growth clusters excessively in Muscat or a few pockets while other governorates stagnate, the national development story fragments. China addressed similar imbalances through regional pairing and coordinated infrastructure investment. Oman can adopt its own variant — linking faster-growing regions with emerging ones through supply-chain integration, institutional twinning, and targeted industrial clustering. Balanced geography reduces political strain and widens opportunity.
Fifthly, the cost of living and household resilience. Citizens experience growth through prices and purchasing power, not GDP headlines. Housing affordability, essentials inflation, and household debt burdens must sit on the same dashboard as output figures. When the cost of living outruns income growth, optimism fades — even in expanding economies. When households feel excluded from opportunity, their willingness to invest, take risks and participate in private-sector growth diminishes.
The lesson is straightforward: GDP is the headline; inclusion is the operating system. This does not imply slowing reform or dampening ambition. On the contrary, it demands sharper sequencing. Policies that stimulate investment must be accompanied by measures that expand participation. Industrial clusters must be linked to training pipelines. Infrastructure investment must consider commuting patterns and labour mobility. Fiscal incentives must avoid inadvertently widening inequality.
The economy must serve the state — strengthening fiscal stability and strategic autonomy. But it must equally serve the people — broadly and perceptibly. Growth that widens opportunity reinforces legitimacy. Growth that concentrates gains undermines it. China’s early restraint was not ideological caution; it was strategic foresight. Oman does not need to copy its model. But it can adopt the principle: growth that holds is growth that includes.
As Oman Vision 2040 advances, the most powerful signal Oman can send —to investors and citizens alike — is this: we will pursue speed, but never at the expense of social balance. We will measure success not only by how fast the economy expands, but by how widely its benefits are felt.
That is not slower growth. It is a stronger growth.