The Conundrum: Global Growth and the Jobs Dilemma

According to IMF projections, emerging markets and developing economies are growing at roughly 4 — 4.4 per cent, compared with developed economies at 1.6 — 1.8 per cent. The growth narrative reflects optimism and hope, yet millions of people worldwide will remain excluded from dignified, stable work. The central global challenge and conundrum facing economies is to achieve meaningful global growth and job-generating opportunities for both the young and the ageing populations worldwide.
Today, the world is facing an entanglement of technology, geopolitics, geo-economics and youth employment. In the next 10-15 years, emerging economies will see a billion people entering the job market while the current trajectories may create only a few hundred million jobs. In principle, investments must be made in infrastructure, both physical and capital, business policy refinement and catalytic financing for micro and macro businesses, where the majority of the jobs are created. Once this is done and momentum is generated, then the flywheel will begin to run and job creation becomes self-sustaining. The emerging-market job engine needs to move beyond its reliance on outsourcing from developed economies amidst geopolitical escalations. The five sectors that can fuel this growth are infrastructure, primary healthcare, agriculture, tourism and value-added manufacturing. These sectors are relatively insulated from the AI factor though AI is reshaping them.
Talking about growth and jobs the president of Singapore, Tharman Shanmugaratnam recently stated, ‘amidst global challenges, security, global health, climate change and disruptions public policy must place peoples need for career security, dignified and meaningful at the centre. The Southeastern stories of success begin with reform from the school system at a young age, where the educational ecosystems provide pathways for people to excel based on their capabilities. We need to bridge the ‘parity of esteem’ between vocational and academic pathways. The social and binary hierarchy must be reduced. Many perceive manufacturing as high-end only, despite the influence of AI countries like Vietnam and Brazil demonstrate that manufacturing is happening at the middle and lower levels of production. For example, if some countries, like China, face excess production, decant their production to Africa and other emerging economies this could create huge scope for manufacturing employment.
Research has shown that the job multiplier from every $1 invested in renewable energy is three times higher than in fossil fuels. Africa and South Asian countries are rich in solar, wind, hydro and thermal resources. This is a clear indicator that green transition is an employment generator for emerging economies. The renewable energy sector offers opportunities for unskilled, semi-skilled and highly skilled professionals. Technology is a disruptor; emerging economies must engage with it innovatively so that it enables the systematic creation of jobs. If economies adopt a structured acceleration approach, it could create millions of entrepreneurial and employment opportunities.
Africa will have a population of 200 million by 2050, constituting 25% of the worlds workforce. Africa is working towards stable and inclusive work. Nigeria is leveraging technology to empower the young. Nigeria has an approach called the ‘ward-based development programme’. It aims to identify the smallest political and administrative units within the municipality, empowering them to become more productive and generate more employment. Nigeria’s focus is on young people, women, dignity and human capital development.
The real measure of growth lies not in its wealth but in its ability to create opportunities where people can participate in it through dignified, meaningful work. Not only the job market but the very nature of jobs has changed with the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) and technology. The next generation of employment must be differently skilled and there will be a departure from lifetime employment and traditional career paths towards flexible paths with many gig opportunities. Public policy and renewed focus on human capabilities can build economies where growth and employment opportunities reinforce each other.