GLMC examines how to read early signals of labour market change

Riyadh - A session at the Global Labour Market Conference (GLMC) explored how policy changes that affect market access can take time to filter into labour markets.
The discussion focused on how policymakers and labour market leaders can identify early cues and reliable metrics, and how to act with confidence before opportunities are missed or disruptions become entrenched. Titled 'When Trade Shifts: Catching the Signs before the Market Settles', the session featured a keynote by Azar Bayramov, Director General, Labour Centre of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, followed by a panel discussion with Tumi Makgabo, Founder & Director, AfricaWorldwide Media; Michael Lawrence OBE, CEO, Asia House; and Denis Machuel, Group CEO, The Adecco Group.

Bayramov emphasised the importance of cooperation to advance decent work, safer workplaces, and stronger social protection systems. He noted that shifts in trade and sourcing decisions, alongside changes in production processes and technology adoption, often surface in labor market outcomes only later, increasing the risk of misinterpretation.

He highlighted the challenge of timing: acting too early can lead to overcorrection, while acting too late can leave systems unprepared once markets adjust.He further underscored that traditional labor market indicators tend to lag by design, and that early signals may appear in less obvious ways, such as widening skill gaps even when headline employment remains stable, changing wage patterns, and evolving job titles that reflect shifts in work. He stressed that these signals become most useful when interpreted together and when labor market systems are aligned to respond.
The panel examined how governments and employers can balance the need for rapid action with the risk of overreacting to temporary signals. H E Azar Bayramov pointed to accelerating disruption from climate pressures and AI, noting the challenge of producing recommendations that keep pace with the speed of change. He referenced efforts to work across 57 member countries through surveys and feedback loops to understand local labor market shifts.
Michael Lawrence OBE discussed the importance of identifying the “direction of travel” in trade and investment, including rising tariffs and emerging alliances, and how these shifts influence business decisions that ultimately reshape labor market demand. He pointed to shifting capital flows and a growing Middle East pivot toward Asia as a macro trend to monitor in volatile markets. On skills, he emphasized that reskilling cannot be treated as a one-time achievement, given the rapid pace of technological change, and highlighted the importance of shared responsibility across governments, the private sector, and individuals.
Denis Machuel highlighted how early signals can be observed through trends in growing economies and through insights from global client networks. He reinforced that agility in skills planning is increasingly essential, with roles and requirements evolving quickly over a three- to four-year horizon.
TRADE CHOICES, WORK CONSEQUENCES
Shifting global trade policies are reshaping labour markets in ways that go far beyond traditional debates around protectionism and liberalization, speakers said during a main-stage panel at the Global Labour Market Conference 2026.
Moderated by Resham Kotecha, Global Head of Policy at the Open Data Institute, the discussion explored how reshoring, nearshoring, and increasingly fragmented value chains are changing how work is organised, skills are deployed, and workers transition between roles.
Panelists highlighted that enterprises are navigating constant operational change, shorter production cycles, and rising compliance demands, often while simultaneously shedding some roles and struggling to fill others requiring new skills.
The discussion emphasised the growing importance of workforce resilience, skills portability, and labor mobility, particularly in regions experiencing strong migration flows and rapid technological adoption.
Speakers agreed that managing these transitions requires closer coordination between trade, labour, and skills policies, as well as stronger collaboration between governments, employers, and education systems.
Jacqueline Mugo, Executive Director & CEO, Federation of Kenya Employers; President, IOE, said, “The impact of trade on labor today is not just about where production moves, but about how effectively enterprises can reorganize work, redesign roles, and manage continuous transition.”Fahad Al Shebel, CEO, National Unified Procurement Company (NUPCO), said: “Resilience is not about choosing between protection and openness, particularly in critical sectors like healthcare; it’s about ensuring continuity while continuing to innovate.”
Rabea Ataya, Founder & CEO, Bayt.com, stated: “We are seeing unprecedented competition for jobs in the region, driven by localization, migration, and accelerating technological change.”Othman Belbeisi, Regional Director, Middle East and North Africa, International Organization for Migration, said: “Transition is inevitable, but it can be managed if training systems respond to real labor demand and skills are recognised across borders.”