The 11th Plan: Driving results through discipline

Oman has never lacked ambition. What separates countries is not the ability to describe a destination, but the ability to build the road — with discipline, speed and trust. The Eleventh Five-Year Development Plan (2026-2030) matters because it is the second executive road map under Oman Vision 2040, arriving at a time when investors are selective and competition for capital is unforgiving.
The Plan targets around 4% average annual real GDP growth (at constant prices) and is organised into 190 strategic programmes aligned with Oman Vision 2040 priorities. Crucially, it is staged: work programmes for 2026-2027 and 2028-2029, followed by a 2030 evaluation and preparation track for the Twelfth Plan. This is the right direction. It treats planning as a discipline of delivery: execute, measure, adjust and scale what works.
Oman also starts this phase with stronger macro credibility than in the recent past. The IMF reported inflation easing to 0.6% in 2024 and remaining contained at 0.9% during January-October 2025. It also noted a fiscal surplus of 3.3% of GDP in 2024, a current account surplus of 3.2% of GDP and government debt at 36.1% of GDP by September 2025. For investors, these figures send a simple message: risk is being managed, not ignored.
The World Bank has highlighted the impact of Oman’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan (launched in 2020), including the reduction of public debt from around 68% of GDP to approximately 35% by 2024. This is old-school prudence and it is exactly what enables new-school diversification. It is also reflected in market confidence: S&P Global Ratings raised Oman’s long-term sovereign rating to BBB- (stable) in September 2024 and Reuters reported Moody’s upgrade to investment grade (Baa3) in July 2025.
Now comes the practical question: where can the Eleventh Plan deliver the biggest ‘economic multiplier’ for business and jobs? I would prioritise three connected missions: (1) manufacturing and export capability, (2) corridor economics that turns geography into cash flow and (3) SME scale-up as the nation’s productivity engine.
Manufacturing is where diversification becomes measurable. The World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook for Oman noted manufacturing was the fastest-growing sector, expanding by 8.3% in 2024. The task now is to turn momentum into clusters: a few globally competitive product families, anchored by major investors, supported by supplier development for local firms and backed by shared services such as testing laboratories and certification support.
Corridor economics is the natural partner of manufacturing. Ports and free zones become transformative only when they behave like a business product: fast movement (predictable customs), fast setup (land and utilities ready) and fast money (trade finance and reliable payment cycles). Economic diplomacy can help pull demand into these corridors. The India-Oman CEPA, signed on December 18, 2025, is a strong example: Reuters reported zero-duty access on over 98% of Oman’s tariff lines for Indian exports and tariff reductions by India on around 78% of its tariff lines covering about 95% of Omani imports by value, with annual bilateral trade of more than $10 billion. But agreements must be operationalised through standards alignment, export readiness and business-to-business partnerships.
SMEs complete the picture — not as a slogan, but as the bridge between big investment and broad employment. The IMF’s staff report projected real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2025, with non-hydrocarbon growth around 3.4%, rising towards 4.2% over the medium term as committed private investments are executed. To convert that outlook into jobs, SMEs must be helped to scale: predictable procurement opportunities, prompt payment, working-capital guarantees and practical support to meet international standards.
Implementation is the real thought-leadership test. Five moves can raise execution without harshness. First, create small ‘delivery rooms’ for each mission (manufacturing, corridors, SMEs) with empowered decision-makers and private sector problem-solvers, measured weekly on cycle times and investment mobilised. Second, sequence early wins within 12-18 months that businesses can feel: registrations, permits, customs clearance and payment discipline. Third, publish a pipeline of bankable projects with land readiness, utility availability and realistic timelines, paired with risk-sharing tools where needed. Fourth, launch an industry-led skills pact focused on certifications employers actually hire for. Fifth, protect confidence through consistency: clear rules, transparent processes and dependable enforcement.
One more element deserves a calm, mature national conversation: resilience. Oman has announced a personal income tax to begin in 2028 — 5% on annual income above RO 42,000, expected to affect roughly 1% of the population. Whether one likes taxes or not, the policy signal is straightforward: broaden revenues over time while keeping the burden limited, so the state can keep investing in services, skills and opportunity.
Ultimately, the Eleventh Plan is a chance to turn Oman Vision 2040 from promise into habit. Oman does not need to invent a new identity; it can revive an old strength: being a trusted crossroads of trade, investment and enterprise — but with modern institutions and modern delivery. If government reduces friction, if business invests in productivity and if both sides collaborate with discipline, the 4% target stops looking like an aspiration and starts looking like a schedule.