GOP seeks to erase Democrats’ supermajority in NY
Published: 04:11 PM,Nov 05,2022 | EDITED : 07:11 PM,Nov 05,2022
For four years, a cycle of victories by progressive-minded Democrats has pushed the New York state Legislature to the left, carrying their party to legislative supermajorities and creating an unfettered path for liberal priorities to be enacted around housing, climate change and abortion rights.
But this year, a national Republican wave is threatening to curb those progressive gains and vanquish the Democrats’ veto-proof supermajority, as Republicans seek to expand their diminished foothold in the state Capitol.
While the Assembly is solidly in Democratic control, Republicans seem well positioned to make inroads in the state Senate, where competitive races are playing out in about a dozen districts, from western and central New York to Long Island.
Although Senate Republicans face a steep challenge to regain the majority they lost to Democrats in 2018 — they would need to win 12 seats — Democrats are just one seat away from losing their two-thirds supermajority in the 63-seat chamber.
That outcome, Republicans believe, is more than within reach.
“I’ve made it my sole mission over these last two years not only to grow our conference but, first and foremost, to end the supermajority,” said Rob Ortt, the Republican minority leader in the state Senate. “That is not only my focus, but that is my hope and expectation as we go toward election night.”
Most of the Democratic incumbents locked in competitive races are more moderate members from competitive swing districts outside New York City that largely lean Democratic but are at play this cycle because of the favourable political climate for Republicans.
As the party in power, Democrats have raked in millions of dollars in contributions from unions, businesses and other special interests seeking to shape legislation, allowing them to significantly outspend Republicans and mount vigorous campaigns to defend some of their most vulnerable incumbents.
But it remains to be seen whether that fundraising edge will be enough to overcome a political climate that some concerned lawmakers have described as potentially calamitous for Democrats, even in a solidly liberal state like New York where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-to-1. That has raised the specter of unforeseen upsets just two years after Democrats had secured the largest majority in state history.
“History on this stuff is pretty clear: It’s a tough year when you’re in charge, and it’s a midterm election,” said state Sen Michael Gianaris, the Democratic deputy majority leader. “I would be perfectly happy to have the second-largest majority in the history of the state, even if it’s a little bit smaller than what we currently have.”
In the 150-seat Assembly, Democrats — who have enjoyed a majority for nearly a half-century — would see their supermajority vanish if they lose eight of the 107 seats they control, still an uphill climb for Republicans.
“It’s a midterm election, and we take nothing for granted,” said Michael Whyland, a spokesperson for Carl Heastie, the Assembly speaker. “We feel we are well positioned heading into Election Day.”
Part of the calculus may largely hinge on the outcomes at the top of the ballot.
Gov Kathy Hochul, who is seeking her first full term after replacing Gov Andrew Cuomo last year, is facing a tougher-than-expected challenge from Rep Lee Zeldin, a Republican from Long Island, where Zeldin is anticipated to perform strongly, potentially helping Republicans in down-ballot races there.
Senate Democrats are already bracing to lose as many as three or four seats in the swing suburbs of Long Island. While they are expected to gain one Republican-held seat in Suffolk County that was recently redrawn to include more Hispanics, heavily favouring Democrats, they have all but given up on trying to protect their most vulnerable incumbent on Long Island, state Sen John Brooks.
But this year, a national Republican wave is threatening to curb those progressive gains and vanquish the Democrats’ veto-proof supermajority, as Republicans seek to expand their diminished foothold in the state Capitol.
While the Assembly is solidly in Democratic control, Republicans seem well positioned to make inroads in the state Senate, where competitive races are playing out in about a dozen districts, from western and central New York to Long Island.
Although Senate Republicans face a steep challenge to regain the majority they lost to Democrats in 2018 — they would need to win 12 seats — Democrats are just one seat away from losing their two-thirds supermajority in the 63-seat chamber.
That outcome, Republicans believe, is more than within reach.
“I’ve made it my sole mission over these last two years not only to grow our conference but, first and foremost, to end the supermajority,” said Rob Ortt, the Republican minority leader in the state Senate. “That is not only my focus, but that is my hope and expectation as we go toward election night.”
Most of the Democratic incumbents locked in competitive races are more moderate members from competitive swing districts outside New York City that largely lean Democratic but are at play this cycle because of the favourable political climate for Republicans.
As the party in power, Democrats have raked in millions of dollars in contributions from unions, businesses and other special interests seeking to shape legislation, allowing them to significantly outspend Republicans and mount vigorous campaigns to defend some of their most vulnerable incumbents.
But it remains to be seen whether that fundraising edge will be enough to overcome a political climate that some concerned lawmakers have described as potentially calamitous for Democrats, even in a solidly liberal state like New York where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-to-1. That has raised the specter of unforeseen upsets just two years after Democrats had secured the largest majority in state history.
“History on this stuff is pretty clear: It’s a tough year when you’re in charge, and it’s a midterm election,” said state Sen Michael Gianaris, the Democratic deputy majority leader. “I would be perfectly happy to have the second-largest majority in the history of the state, even if it’s a little bit smaller than what we currently have.”
In the 150-seat Assembly, Democrats — who have enjoyed a majority for nearly a half-century — would see their supermajority vanish if they lose eight of the 107 seats they control, still an uphill climb for Republicans.
“It’s a midterm election, and we take nothing for granted,” said Michael Whyland, a spokesperson for Carl Heastie, the Assembly speaker. “We feel we are well positioned heading into Election Day.”
Part of the calculus may largely hinge on the outcomes at the top of the ballot.
Gov Kathy Hochul, who is seeking her first full term after replacing Gov Andrew Cuomo last year, is facing a tougher-than-expected challenge from Rep Lee Zeldin, a Republican from Long Island, where Zeldin is anticipated to perform strongly, potentially helping Republicans in down-ballot races there.
Senate Democrats are already bracing to lose as many as three or four seats in the swing suburbs of Long Island. While they are expected to gain one Republican-held seat in Suffolk County that was recently redrawn to include more Hispanics, heavily favouring Democrats, they have all but given up on trying to protect their most vulnerable incumbent on Long Island, state Sen John Brooks.