Bill Smith -
Britain’s main opposition Labour party made an unusual complaint to media watchdog Ofcom ahead of next week’s general election, claiming that broadcaster Sky News’ on-screen strapline “the Brexit election” could be politically biased.
Ofcom dismissed Labour’s complaint and, symbolically at least, its bid to push the focus of the election away from the issue that has dogged British politics since 52 per cent voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Many voters are keenly interested in Britain’s national health service, the global climate crisis, the economy and crime, according to opinion polls. But Brexit remains the top issue.
That, however, does not mean Brexit will be the determining factor in elections of members of parliament for all 650 constituencies in Britain and Northern Ireland, said Sarah Hagemann, an expert in European politics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).
“Within this election we’re likely to see a reconcentration towards the two [main] camps,” Hagemann said.
Alongside his main slogan “Get Brexit done,” Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson has continued to present a “people versus parliament” narrative for his mission to withdraw Britain from the EU on January 31.
Left-wing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who has campaigned “for the many, not the few,” has infuriated pro-EU lawmakers in his own party by promising to negotiate a new Brexit deal with Brussels and then put it to a second referendum in which the party would stay neutral.
A comfortable majority for the Conservatives, with a vote share of about 44 per cent, remains the most likely outcome of the election.
The less likely scenario is a hung parliament that could allow Labour to form a minority government with support from the Scottish National Party and perhaps the Liberal Democrats, Hagemann said. But forecasts from many opinion polls have proved inaccurate in other recent British elections.
Under the winner-takes-all, constituency-based system, the election is ultimately about a fight by the Conservatives to seize a few dozen marginal seats, largely from Labour in areas where a majority voted for Brexit in 2016.
In most of the other 500-plus constituencies, voters are almost certain to endorse candidates from the same parties they voted for in the last election in 2017.
With the electoral waters muddied by Brexit divisions that cut across party lines, some tactical voting is also expected next week. A YouGov poll suggested that 23 per cent of voters were undecided, refused to discuss their intentions, or did not plan to vote.
“So, as things stand, a Conservative majority is still the most likely outcome but a hung parliament is entirely plausible,” Matthew Goodwin, a political analyst at the University of Kent, wrote in a briefing.
Voter turnout is expected to be low in Britain’s third general election in less than five years, with the Brexit referendum and local elections in between.
According to polls, 72 per cent of people over 34 years old but only some 40 per cent of younger voters said they planned to vote.
“I’m a bit pessimistic” about turnout, said Patrick Dunleavy, a political scientist at the LSE, citing the unusual timing in December and the fact that British voters are “quite weather sensitive.”
“Public interest in the election looks incredibly low,” Dunleavy said
Turnout was about 70 per cent in the last December election in 1923.
“I think we’ll probably see in safe seats quite a slump in turnout.... [but] more activity in marginals,” he said.
If Johnson does get his Brexit Christmas present by winning the election, Britain could be heading for a grim new year economically
whether or not he manages to negotiate a new trade deal with Brussels by the end of 2020.
“It’s safe to say that with Boris Johnson’s Brexit, it’s a very hard Brexit we’re looking at,” Hagemann said.
An analysis by the political think-tank UK in a Changing Europe, found that even a smooth Brexit under Johnson’s deal would cause an annual fiscal shortfall of 6 to 20 billion pounds.
“The harder the Brexit, the more difficult the already problematic economic and fiscal arithmetic will become for any government,” said Anand Menon, the think tank’s director.
“One way or another, this election may ‘Get Brexit done,’ but the economic impacts will be with us for the next parliament and beyond,” Menon said.
— dpa
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