The hotly contested Dutch election campaign enters its final phase, with parliament closed and a major debate on radio among the parties. Analysts believe the populist might have passed his peak
The Dutch parliament has held its last session and campaigning is now in full swing for the March 15 elections, but populist frontrunner Geert Wilders is keeping away from the traditional electioneering forums.
The 53-year-old Party for Freedom (PVV) leader may have sound security reasons for his absence from the hustings, but the strategy may also suit his aims, as support for his positions goes into decline.
“Over recent weeks, an increasing number of people have decided against the PVV,” according to Tom Louwerse a political scientist atthe University of Leiden, who has developed a trend analysis taking in the most important polling institutions.
The final stretch of the campaign kicks off on Friday with a debate on radio, but the anti-Islam right-winger with the characteristic blond mane is not participating — of his own choice.
He has also cancelled appearing on two of the most important TV debates.
And he rarely grants press interviews in any case.
When it comes to the electronic media, Wilders’ preference for communicating his policies remains Twitter.
His options for making the appearances in public so essential to most Dutch political campaigning are in any event limited, as he has been under special 24-hour protection for more than a decade.
Even these public appearances have been curtailed after it became known this week that there had been a leak
from a member of the team guarding the controversial politician.
But standing back from the hurly burly of public debate could suit Wilders’ strategy.
He does not have to defend his standpoints — on fiscal support for the lower paid and opposition to the European Union for example — butcan simply publicize on Twitter.
The strategy has worked over recent months, with the PVV unchallenged leader in the polls on up to 20 per cent electoral support.
This has now declined to around 17 per cent, still higher than other parties, but only just ahead of the conservative liberals of Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).Political analysts believe this approach of withdrawing from TV debates runs the risk of backfiring.
Around half the electorate remains undecided, confronted by as many as 28 political parties, 14 of which could enter the Lower House.
Voters increasingly have the impression that a vote for Wilders’ PVV could be wasted, as the established parties have rejected the possibility of a coalition with him from the outset.
Rutte took to Wilders’ own favourite medium to tweet: “That. Will. Not. Happen.”
The I&O election research institute believes the VVD strategy of refusing to deal with the PVV is working, with many undecided voters backing Rutte’s party to lock Wilders out of government.
Wilders is outraged at this cordon sanitaire, calling it ‘‘undemocratic and an insult to millions of voters.”
Some 2 million voters had been “excluded from the outset,” he said recently in a rare television interview.
Sociologist Koen Damhuis, who has written a book on Wilders’ support base, believes Wilders thrives best as an outsider.
“Wilders does not want to be in power at all,” Damhuis believes, pointing to the difficulties in implementing a programme that includes
banning the Quran and closing mosques, leaving the EU and cutting funding to development aid, lowering taxes and providing more money for the police.
This would all be very difficult to get through a coalition government programme, especially given the number of parties likely to be involved.
Point-scoring from off the political stage could a be a risk strategy for the populist, as analysis from previous elections has shown that his support base tends to stay at home on election day if they believe his star is waning.
— dpa
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