TOKYO: Raging global trade tensions are likely to force some finance leaders from Group of 20 nations meeting in Japan this weekend to issue stark warnings about risks to the world economy, challenging the forum’s more upbeat outlook on global growth.
In a communique set for release after the meeting, the G20 finance ministers and central bank heads are expected to maintain a view that global economy will pick up through next year, said two officials from G20 member countries.
However, some policymakers may be less optimistic about the outlook and flag growing risks when they speak on the sidelines of the meeting, as US President Donald Trump’s bitter trade war with China and Mexico jolt markets and stoke fears of a global recession.
“A few months earlier, there was a broad consensus that global growth will rebound in the latter half of this year, as the effect of China’s stimulus measures kick in,” said a third official who is among a delegation attending the G20.
“In hindsight, that view may have been too optimistic.” Factory activity slowed in the United States, Europe and Asia last month as the escalating trade war raised fears of a global economic downturn.
Such global recession fears have prompted Australia and New Zealand to cut interest rates, while several US Federal Reserve officials have also hinted at the chance of rate cuts.
“A global recession is not our main scenario, but the risks are on the rise,” said Hiroshi Shiraishi, senior economist at BNP Paribas Securities.
“The G20 will talk about the ongoing uncertainty and state that they are ready to act if needed. But realistically, what can they do?”
The two-day G20 meeting kicking off on Saturday in Fukuoka, southern Japan, will lay the groundwork for a leaders’ summit in Osaka on June 28-29, 2019 — Reuters
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