Chris Kahn -
With less than two months to go until the US election, President Donald Trump is having trouble energising his core supporters, especially white voters without college degrees who were key to his victory in 2016, a Reuters polling analysis shows.
The analysis, based on Reuters/Ipsos national opinion polling from May to August and 2016 exit poll data, found that Trump has lost support among non-college educated whites, who made up 44 per cent of the US electorate four years ago and heavily favoured the Republican over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Trump is still more popular with this group than Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, with 46 per cent saying they would vote for Trump, compared with 34 per cent who back Biden. But his 12-point advantage in August is down from a 21-point lead in May, and well below the 34-point advantage he had over Clinton.
What is more worrisome for Trump, however, is that the constituency’s commitment to voting has remained flat this year, while interest has risen among groups that lean toward Democrats: Minorities, women, urban and suburban residents and people with below-average incomes.
The data suggests that this time, there will be greater pressure on the Republican Party — and not the Democratic Party — to boost voter turnout to win.
“This is rare, and it’s an interesting indication of how energised or agitated the electorate is’’, said Donald Green, a political scientist at Columbia University.
“People who would ordinarily not make it past the likely voter screen are doing so because they’re so decisively hostile towards the president’’.
In the August poll, 69 per cent of registered African-American voters and 61 per cent of registered Hispanic voters said they were “certain” to cast their ballots in November, up 7 and 6 percentage points, respectively, from May. The number of committed voters rose by 5 points each among women, suburban and urban residents, and people who make less than $50,000 a year. — Reuters
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