Josh Smith -
US President Donald Trump says sanctions on North Korea are “on in full” ahead of his summit with leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi this week, but analysts say time is running out on Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
Kim and Trump will meet for the second time this week after their historic meeting in Singapore last year led to general commitments to improve relations and denuclearise the Korean peninsula, but no concrete agreements.
North Korea’s mission to the United Nations released a memo last week warning the country is facing a food shortfall, blaming the weather as well as “barbaric and inhuman” sanctions it says have blocked much-needed farming supplies.
Kim appears eager to secure at least some relief from sanctions, which have stood in the way of official investment by companies and governments, many of which have signalled they are waiting on sanctions relief to invest in everything from highways and telecommunications to special economic zones.
But across the region there are signs the political and economic pressure on North Korea has sprung leaks as Pyongyang adapts to restrictions and more countries signal their willingness to reopen trade.
Fraying sanctions enforcement prompted US Senators Ted Cruz and Robert Menendez to write a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo this month expressing “deep concern” that efforts by the United States and South Korea to engage with North Korea may lead to sanctions violations.
All this means Trump may have less leverage than he thinks going into this summit, said Joshua Stanton, an American lawyer who helped draft past sanctions legislation and is critical of what he sees as failures to enforce the current rules. “What Trump does not understand is that sanctions have short half-lives because the North Koreans are highly adaptable,” he said. “Trump’s leverage to disarm Kim without war is draining away.”
Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign not only imposed sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear weapon programme, but rallied countries to cut economic and political ties with Pyongyang and expel North Korean workers. Vietnam, which is hosting the second summit, is an example of both the effects and limitations of maximum pressure.
Despite their Cold War ties and wartime alliance, the volume of trade between Vietnam and North Korea has gone from $15 million in 2012 to being all but non-existent, according to Vietnam’s foreign ministry, which called trade “small and inconsistent”.
But ties have lingered.
There are still two North Korean restaurants in Hanoi, and two further companies listed with North Korean owners residing in Hanoi are still operating, according to a Reuters review of company registration records.
Vietnam told the UN last August it was “reviewing the earned income” of North Koreans within Vietnam.
In another report, Vietnam said it had not granted or reissued work visas for North Korean nationals since 11 September, 2017.
Despite the risks, some in Vietnam are eager to do business with North Korea if sanctions are lifted.
Last month, the head of Vietnam’s largest telecommunication company Viettel said his company had been seeking to invest in North Korea.
“We first sought permission from North Korea to build a mobile network there in 2010,” CEO Le Dang Dung said. “But we’re still waiting for sanctions to be lifted and for the country to open its market to foreign investors.” Nguyen Thuy Hanh, vice chairwoman of Truong An Group, said she too was seeking to invest in North Korea once sanctions were lifted.
“With its abundant natural resources, convenient geographical location, ports and good education system, I
think North Korea could develop rapidly,” Hanh said. — Reuters
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