The Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system, with a potential to engage airborne targets about 400 kilometres away, is arguably the best air defence system of its kind. The Russian system’s missile range is triple that of the comparable US Patriot system, Turkish military aviation expert Hakan Kilic said.
“You can shoot down almost any jet you lock within the range,” he said.
As Turkey received the first deliveries of the system this week, tensions with fellow Nato member the United States reached a new high. Washington charges that Turkey is acquiring military hardware that is capable of undermining the alliance, which has long considered Russia an adversary.
Is the rift worth it for Turkey? “The S-400’s capabilities will be quite limited as it will not be integrated into the Nato air defence radar system,” according to Turkish defence industry expert Arda Mevlutoglu. “The S-400 can serve as deterrent against threats, allowing Turkey shut down larger (parts of its) airspace, but it has no protection against ballistic missiles,” he said.
For this reason and others, Turkey should not give up on seeking to buy alternative systems such as the Patriot, according to Kilic, the military aviation expert. “The S-400 batteries have blind spots and are vulnerable to low altitude threats,” he said.
The first parts of the S-400 landed last week at the Murted military airbase in Ankara, pushing the US to suspend Turkey from a F-35 stealth fighter jet programme.
Ankara had planned to buy more than 100 F-35s, with the first two jets to arrive in Turkey early next year. Washington fears the Russian system will undermine the F-35 stealth capacities.
Evicting Turkish companies from the F-35 programme will mean “forfeiting years of work, training and money worth over a billion dollars,” Kilic said.
Some experts have argued that the S-400 purchase has solidified Turkey’s diplomatic relationship with Russia as Ankara drifts further away from its Nato allies, but Mustafa Aydin of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University disagrees.
“Turkey and Russia’s relationship is still evolving,” Aydin said, pointing to the fact that the relationship ground to a halt in 2015 over the downing of a Russian jet and that the two countries are still backing conflicting sides in the Syrian civil war.
Russia continues to see Turkey as a geopolitical rival, according to Turkish defence industry expert Mevlutoglu, who added that Moscow would not consider establishing a more permanent defence alliance with Turkey due to its status as a Nato member.
Michael Kofman, an analyst at the US-based defence think tank CNA, says Ankara may well be interested in a strategic partnership with Moscow, but should be wary of what that would entail.
“Politically, Russia is more reliable because it is unlikely to suspend defence support over human rights, democracy, or value related concerns,” Kofman said.
“However, it is a cynical power with its own baggage. It is going to be the Russians servicing the equipment for higher-level technology,” he said.
The arms deal involves risks to not only Ankara but to Russia, according to Diyar Autal, an associate of Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.
“Russia takes the risk of its missile defence system being taken apart to be studied by Nato in a post-Erdogan period,” he said. — DPA
Ergin Hava and Peter Spinella
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