Polls are not perfect but cannot be written off

Andy Jalil -

andyjalil@aol.com -

Polling companies have taken a fair bit of kicking in recent times, not surprisingly, after failing to predict the outcome of so many political events. We saw this in three of the most recent major events.

The UK Conservative party getting a majority in the 2015 election was unexpected and so was the referendum result last June regarding Britain leaving the EU.

In America, the shock election of Donald Trump as President also defied opinion polls.

While these outcomes came as an embarrassing blow to polling firms, the degree of their errors was not so great that people should now ignore their findings.

Looking back we see the polls were tight between UK former Prime Minister David Cameron and opposition leader Ed Miliband, as they were between Leave and Remain campaigners with the latter seen ahead leading up to the vote.

The American election proved to be a bigger surprise with the BBC poll-of-polls showing Donald Trump four points behind Hillary Clinton leading up to the ballot.

All this makes the current gulf found between Britain’s two top parties, Conservative and Labour, a bit surprising.

Although the latest poll has shown the Tory lead cut to nine percentage points following their manifesto last week.

There has been criticism with regard to their plans on cuts in the care of the elderly which includes winter fuel payments to be mean-tested.

Prime Minister Theresa May also dropped the triple-lock guarantee on pensions which was put in place by Cameron’s government and she ditched her predecessor’s target of eliminating the deficit by 2020 but kept with the aim of lowering net migration to below 100,000 a year. Also, Chancellor Philip Hammond hinted strongly he plans to increase taxes.

For the last seven years there has been a Tory prime minister and nearly half-way through the period of a Conservative-led parliament May announced the snap election.

These two factors should be favourable to the Labour party, yet the polls show otherwise.

Supporters of the opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn and Labour activists seem to feel they can defy all odds when in fact they should be wary of the situation.

One of the consequences of Labour’s dire position and dim electoral prospects is that it creates an opening for May to tread on Labour’s ground.

From the time she went into the Tory leadership race, May took on points from Labour’s policies as well as rhetoric but with a Conservative twist.

She hit out at big business and the make-up of boardroom appointments as well as a hint of attack on international elite, so many of whom have made London their home.

There are many in her party who do not much approve of May being so keen on this leftward move.

It is felt that with the apparent weakness of Corbyn there’s no need for her to drift on to his part of the pitch.

Free-marketeers and those more sceptical of the ability of the state to guide commercial decision-making do not quite approve of May wanting to see workers on company boards and interfering in markets.

Yet this is the Prime Minister’s approach, a belief in the good that government can do and a desire to reshape the business world.

After recently showing her commitment to meddle with the price of energy she followed with putting the Conservative campaign in support of the ordinary worker and pledging to offer more opportunities for leave, greater protections and more rights at work.

Critics in her own party may not quite approve her drift to the left, but this is all about politics rather than policy.

For example, May wants to offer “a statutory right to request leave for training” but companies would be under no obligation to accept the request or to pay for it if they did.

It shows May’s ideas appear to have been tempered by cabinet colleagues and representations from business groups.

There is still a risk that such tinkering adds a burden on firms, especially small ones, but her idea is mainly about increasing the reach of the Tory party and removing accusations that they are more interested in bosses than workers.

If this works for her, then the already struggling Corbyn can only watch her run the government for the next five years from June 8.