Jan Kuhlmann -
Iraqis go to the polls in parliamentary elections on Saturday, a process where the foreign policies of Iran and the United States will hang heavy. But, on the local level, voters are lining up behind the candidates who speak best for them or are willing to hand out the most cash
At times, the Iraqi election campaign seems like a pop concert. Loud music thumps as young men express their support for the candidates on the stage.
Calling out the names of their favourite politicians, the men wave the Iraqi flag, clap and sing. They hoist one of the candidates onto their shoulders.
There were no speeches.
Iraqi elections are less about the details of policy than about slogans, personalities and strategic alliances. Nevertheless, observers are referring to the possibility of a “watershed” election when voters cast their ballots on Saturday.
The elections are the first since the victory against IS — which had taken control of swathes of Iraq four years ago and was even threatening Baghdad.
Perhaps more importantly, the vote will decide whether the country’s various ethnic groups — some of which were targeted by IS, some of which the group attempted to co-opt — can be reconciled and the country stabilised.
Whatever happens, two powers are sure to loom over the process: the US, which overthrew Saddam Hussein earlier this century and has tried to maintain influence, and Iran, the neighbour to the east. The starting point could scarcely be more complex.
While IS has largely been defeated, it has not been destroyed.
Entire cities lie in ruins, including Mosul, formerly the main IS bastion in the north of the country.
Hundreds of thousands of displaced people are still stuck in camps.
Independent militias hold sway, alongside the national army and police, in parts of the country.
In this conflict situation, the established political elite are manoeuvring to form the next government.
Prime Minister Haider al Abadi, who has been in office for the past four years, has formed his own electoral alliance - the Victory Coalition.
The 66-year-old veteran politician has the support of the West and can claim that IS was beaten during his term in office, when his office simultaneously made him commander-in-chief.
The security situation has improved markedly, with a decline in the number of attacks.
He also won points for standing firm last year after the country’s Kurdish population attempted to unilaterally declare independence.
That said, Al Abadi has a reputation of not slamming doors shut.
He embraces all voters and maintains good relations with their respective patrons.
Ordinary Iraqis tend to speak well of him. “Al Abadi is better than the others,” says Raad, who owns a small supermarket in the centre of Baghdad.
“In any event, Al Abadi is better than the one who preceded him.” Raad is referring to Nuri al Maliki, the politician who was prime minister for the eight years up to 2014 and who is seen by many as one of the country’s most corrupt politicians.
To boot, IS enjoyed major advances under Al Maliki’s rule.
The 67-year-old belongs to the same party as Al Abadi, but is campaigning at the head of a competing alliance.
For these elections, Iraq’s impenetrable party system is more divided than ever.
This applies to the parties in particular.
Apart from the lists headed by Al Abadi and Al Maliki, the alliance headed by Hadi al Amiri is seen as having good prospects. But it is regarded with suspicion by both the minorities and the West.
Al Amiri is the best known — and most notorious — of the former leaders of the powerful militias.
In the event that he becomes prime minister, Baghdad is likely to follow the line from neighbour more closely.
Many fear that, no matter what happens, not much will change.
For example, Tehran is likely to have a large say in the shape of the new government. — dpa
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