Mekunu could reach a category of tropical cyclone 2: Meteorologist

MUSCAT, May 23 - Mekunu in Maldivian language or Beyah in Arabic, the tropical cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea, is named after a fish.

All the countries which have coasts on the Northern Indian Ocean are part of the Regional Committee and they christen all the tropical storms that are formed in the northern part of the Indian Ocean. This region includes Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

The idea of naming the tropical storm is for archiving, research purpose for scientists and students of meteorology, geography as well as climatic studies in addition to being part of climate data. That brings up the question: Are we having more cyclones than before?

“We have two seasons of tropical systems: One is pre-monsoon and the other is post-monsoon. The months of May and June are pre-monsoon for us, while October and November are the post-monsoon months.

Since last ten years we have experienced an increase in the intensity of cyclones. In the past it was not the case. While many experts speculate that the trend is a result of global warming leading to climate change, international meteorologists argue this is just part of the climate cycle,” explained Abdullah al Balushi (pictured), Meteorologist, Oman Met Office.

As for this tropical storm, most of the global models agree that it will head towards Dhofar or Al Wusta. There are also indications the storm might go to the coastal areas between Oman and Yemen.

“After all, this is a tropical storm. So whether it heads to any of these three places, the heavy rains and strong winds are going to bring in an impact on these three areas,” pointed out Al Balushi.

In less than 24 hours the tropical storm is expected to be a full- fledged tropical cyclone — category one that has already been named Mekunu.

In a tropical storm the wind is around 34 knots at the centre, whereas in the case of tropical cyclone the strength of the wind goes up to 64 knots. By Wednesday evening the storm only needed four more to make it to 64 knots to claim the status of tropical cyclone. Some of the global models indicated that Mekunu could reach a category of tropical cyclone 2 while other models claimed it could reach category 3.

The landing of the cyclone is expected to bring in heavy rains accompanied by strong winds. People should be cautious especially anywhere near the coastal areas. The Numerical Weather Prediction forecast rainfall from 200 to 250 mm and maybe peak at 500 to 600 mm in some areas especially the mountainous areas. The indirect impact of the storm is expected by today.

Lakshmi Kothaneth