Brad Brooks -
The graft conviction on Wednesday of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a front-runner for next year’s presidential election, opens the door for an outsider to take power in Latin America’s largest country, political experts said.
Lula, a giant on the Brazilian political scene who led Brazil from 2003 to 2011, has said he wants to run for president again next year. But if his nearly 10-year sentence is upheld on appeal, Lula, a founder of the leftist Workers Party, would be barred from seeking office again for eight years, beginning after any jail time is complete.
Lula, 71, is among a raft of Brazilian elites toppled by an epic corruption scandal that has battered the nation’s economy, engulfed every major party and deepened public cynicism about politics. It’s a toxic mix that has enraged voters, who are searching for someone to lead them out of the political and economic wilderness.
“Brazil is now as polarised as the US, it really has been for years,” said Carlos Melo, a political scientist with Insper, a Sao Paulo business school. “But if Lula is absent it would unquestionably open the space for an outside, very emotional leader, a bit like US President Trump.”
Lula was convicted on Wednesday by Judge Sergio Moro, who found Lula guilty of accepting 3.7 million reais ($1.15 million) worth of bribes from engineering firm OAS SA. That is the amount prosecutors said the company spent refurbishing a beach apartment for Lula in return for his help winning contracts with state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro.
OAS was part of a supplier cartel that prosecutors said fleeced billions of dollars from Petrobras through inflated contracts, funnelling some of the ill-gotten gains to politicians and political parties. Several OAS executives were jailed by Moro, the hard-charging judge overseeing the so-called Car Wash investigation, the largest-ever corruption probe in Brazil’s history.
Lula’s lawyers said he is innocent. He will remain free while his attorneys appeal the ruling, which they have characterised as a political witch hunt. The appeals court is expected to take at least eight months to rule.
“This politically motivated judgment attacks Brazil’s rule of law, democracy and Lula’s basic human rights,” Lula’s defence team wrote in an emailed statement. “It is of immense concern to the Brazilian people and to the international community.”
Despite his legal woes, the charismatic Lula remains Brazil’s best-known politician and has retained a base of loyal supporters. As president, he channelled resources from a commodities boom into social programmes that helped lift millions from poverty.
Recent surveys from the respected Datafolha polling institute show that in a second-round runoff next year, Lula would beat all contenders with the exception of the environmentalist and two-time presidential candidate Marina Silva, with whom he is in a technical tie.
But if Lula cannot run, and with roughly 20 per cent of the electorate undecided on any candidate, the election is up for grabs.
While Silva has polled well, Melo and other political watchers doubt that the soft-spoken, environmental expert could win, in part because her campaigns have lacked the fiery speeches and dramatic flair needed to engage many voters.
The public’s thirst for showmanship and anti-establishment candidates, Melo said, could give a boost to two outsiders: Ciro Gomes, a tough-talking former governor, federal minister and congressman who is now with the Democratic Workers Party; and Joao Doria, a millionaire media mogul and former star of Brazil’s version of “The Apprentice.”
The latest Datafolha polls shows Gomes and Doria in a technical tie in a second-round presidential vote next year. — Reuters
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