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EDITOR IN CHIEF- ABDULLAH BIN SALIM AL SHUEILI

IS threat persists despite rout in Syria

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Weedah Hamzah -


The defeat of IS in eastern Syria signals the end of its self-styled caliphate, which once stretched across the war-torn country and neighbouring Iraq.


However, experts are quick to point out that the extremist group could re-emerge.


“The factors that led to the rise of IS are still there: a weak government in Iraq, brutality against local communities, militant ideology, and government corruption,” said Firas Modad, an analyst at the London-based think-tank IHS Markit.


He expects the group to re-emerge in the next five years, if not sooner.


“It is only a matter of time before we see it,” Modad said.


The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led rebel group allied with the United States, declared complete control of the village of Baghouz on Saturday, the last sliver of territory that was once under IS control in energy-rich eastern Syria.


IS militants are still present in scattered areas in Iraq and a desert area in central Syria.


Fresh from its victory on Saturday, even the SDF warned that the fight was not completely over.


“This does not mean we ended terrorism and IS,” said SDF foreign relations head Abdel Kareem Umer.


“IS still has sleeper cells and their ideology still exists in the areas they ruled for years,” he warned.


Riad Kahwaji, a founder of the Dubai-based research group Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), similarly expects IS extremists to go underground and disperse in sleeper cells.


“So long as the conflict in Syria is not resolved and Iraq’s sectarian-political divide is not mended, (IS) will continue to have a fertile ground along the Iraq-Syrian border to survive and


operate and maybe make a big comeback,” he said.


“A permissive security environment, black-market economies, and sectarian polarisation” in Syria and Iraq make a comeback more likely, agreed Aron Lund, a fellow with the New York-based Century Foundation.


In 2014, the group seized large areas in both countries and declared its so-called caliphate under the leadership of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, whose whereabouts are still unknown.


In the following years, the group’s ranks swelled with local and


foreign fighters.


Still, regrouping may not be as easy now as it was five years ago.


“The group will face some difficulties in doing so, as it cannot count on much goodwill from people, who were willing to support the group in 2014, because they have seen what that led to,” Lund said. What comes after the group’s defeat in eastern Syria depends on several factors, including the US withdrawal from the country.


In late 2015, the US said it was sending 50 special forces into


Syria as part of efforts to boost the fight against IS.


The move came a year after a US-led coalition began an air campaign against the extremist group, and soon after Syria’s powerful Kurdish militia and some Arab rebel groups created the SDF forces to take on IS.


The number of US ground troops in Syria subsequently grew to up to 2,000 personnel.


But in December, President Donald Trump said he was going to pull all US troops out of Syria, prompting criticism from his Kurdish allies there. He had said at one point that IS was “defeated” in Syria, later amending that to “largely defeated.”


“One of the most important factors is what happens when the US steps away from Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces will not be able to survive as an independent entity,” Lund said.


“The question now is what happens to their (SDF) areas — maybe Turkey takes some, maybe they strike a deal with (Syrian President Bashar) Al Assad and the Russians to hand some over,” he added.


The situation then “could be very messy,” he warned, with any power vacuum also creating new space for IS to regroup. — dpa


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