‘Fragile and unruly’

Hathai Techakitteranun -

When the Thai army seized power in a May 2014 coup, not many people expected then-army chief Prayut Chan-o-cha to stay in power this long — five years and counting.

The military’s propaganda song, whose lyrics suggested the generals would take charge briefly to fix the country’s problems, was played on all television channels as soon as power was seized, leading many to think that civilian rule may soon follow.

But Prayut made himself prime minister that same year, and in March, he sought to legitimize his power by holding an election, while rigging the rules in favour of himself and the military.

Following the polls, Prayut was elected premier by an overwhelming majority in parliament in early June, thanks largely to votes from senators appointed by his regime, and got formal endorsement from King Maha Vajiralongkorn earlier this week, setting the 65-year-old retired general up for his second term as prime minister.

Theoretically, Prayut’s rule could extend to a third term — the rubber-stamp Senate will be in office for five years and can vote Prayut in again when his four-year administration comes to a close — but few analysts think his semi-democratic rule can last that long.

“It would be surprising that this kind of an unwieldy coalition lasts more than six to 18 months, despite the backing of the junta-appointed Senate and the army,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

Thitinan referred to the fact that the newly founded, military-backed Palang Pracharat Party has formed a governing coalition with 18 other political parties because it lacks sufficient seats in the elected lower house.

The Senate only ensured Prayut remains in power, but his party still needs political support to pass bills now that Prayut can no longer exercise his absolute power as a junta leader. This slim-majority coalition comes at a price: either appease the many allies or risk the very stability of the government.

On another front, the military-backed government will face a tough opposition, comprising seven anti-military parties that form almost half of the lower house.

Pheu Thai, the party linked to former prime ministers Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra, who were both ousted in military coups, remains popular and won the most seats in the March 24 election, despite the military regime’s efforts to undermine it.

Meanwhile, the progressive, youth-appealing Future Forward Party surprised many by winning 81 seats, despite the fact that none of its candidates have run in an election or served in public office before. — dpa