Far-right poised for gains in Estonia vote

Polina KALANTAR & Mary SIBIERSKI -

Estonia’s centre-left coalition is fighting for survival in a general election on Sunday, challenged by its traditional liberal rival but also a far-right party boosted by a backlash from mostly rural regions in the Baltic euro zone state.

The largely lacklustre campaign has focused on taxation, tensions over Russian language education for Estonia’s sizeable Russian minority and the rural-urban divide. A survey conducted on February 14-20 suggests a very tight race.

Prime Minister Juri Ratas’s centrist Centre party received 24.7 per cent support among those surveyed, narrowly trailing the liberal Reform party led by former MEP Kaja Kallas with 25.7 per cent, according to pollster Kantar Emor.

The far-right Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) meanwhile stands to more than double its support to 21.3 per cent, on populist promises of slashing income and excise taxes and pushing anti-immigration rhetoric. However, with 5-6 parties expected to enter the 101-seat parliament, the splintered outcome will likely make coalition building tricky.

Traditional rivals, Centre and Reform have alternated in government and even governed together over the nearly three decades since Estonia broke free from the crumbling Soviet Union.

Both strongly support EU and Nato membership and have favoured austerity to keep spending in check, giving Estonia the euro zone’s lowest debt-to-GDP ratio.

Centre has vowed to replace Estonia’s 20 per cent flat income tax and 21 per cent corporate tax with a progressive system to boost state revenue. Reform wants to raise the tax-free monthly minimum and lower unemployment insurance premiums to aid job creation.

Joblessness hovers at just under five per cent while economic growth is expected to slow to 2.7 per cent this year, from the 3.5 per cent in 2018.

A 34-year-old financial risk analyst from Tallinn sees cause for concern. “As the global market seems to be heading towards a new crisis, politicians’ promises to change taxes or finance their promises with deficits isn’t very reassuring,” said Tiina, who declined to give her surname.

Voting will be a “difficult choice”, she added. — AFP