If European Parliament elections are a measure of the state of the European Union, one thing seems clear: voters are demanding change, but
not a fundamental redesign of the European project. While the elections dealt a blow to the centrist parties that have dominated the legislature throughout its 40-year history, they did not deliver the “earthquake” predicted by Steve Bannon, the former strategist of US President Donald Trump and poster boy of the populist movement.
Sunday’s election results spelt the end of the grand coalition between the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) — the home of German Chancellor Angela Merkel — and the Socialists and Democrats group, who jointly fell short of a majority in the 751-seat legislature.
“The monopoly of power is broken,” declared Margrethe Vestager, who is running for the post of European Commission president on behalf of the liberal ALDE group. Her group was one of Sunday’s main winners, surging to 105 seats — according to partial results — with the backing of French President Emmanuel Macron. The Greens also performed unexpectedly well, coming fourth with 67 seats.
“Underlying all of this is a vote for change from the status quo,” said Susi Dennison of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank.
The high turnout of around 50 per cent — an 8-percentage-point leap reversing steadily declining figures — showed that voters understood the elections as being critical for the future of the EU, she argued.
Many in Brussels had feared a lot worse, after populist parties such as Italy’s governing League and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France had vowed to reshape the European Union in their image. While the far-right made gains, League leader Matteo Salvini fell far short of his aim to form the largest grouping in parliament with his new European Alliance of Peoples and Nations.
Overall, the eurosceptic right-wing groups won 172 seats in the new legislature, just 17 seats more than in the outgoing legislature, according to Sunday’s partial results.
Meanwhile, the parliament’s far-right spectrum will remain divided, consisting also of the European Conservatives and Reformists — the home of Britain’s ruling Tories and Poland’s Law and Justice Party — while having to bridge over divisions between Salvini and his bedfellows.
However, Dennison argued that it would be wrong to think the EU has narrowly escaped a worst-case scenario. “That would be one of the biggest risks in this election,” she said.
After all, the far-right share of the new parliament is almost 23 per cent, giving it enough disruptive power to put pressure on the centrist parties.
“I would read it more as a last chance for Europe to prove it is capable of changing direction,” she added.
The first test will be the appointment of EU commission president, which will also put on trial the system of lead candidates under which Germany’s Manfred Weber of the EPP has staked his claim on the post.
The coming hours will be crucial if Weber wants to secure a majority in parliament, which has a final say on the appointment. However, he also needs the backing of EU leaders, who will hold a first round of talks on Tuesday.
“My outstretched hand goes to all those who stand for a unified Europe,” Weber said on Saturday. — DPA
Helen Maguire
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