ZAKHO, Iraq: More than three weeks after Iraq’s Kurds voted for independence, it’s business as usual at the bustling Ibrahim Khalil border crossing with Turkey.
Ankara has threatened to impose economic sanctions on Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region to deter moves towards independence, but hundreds of trucks still cross the border each day — some with supplies for Kurdish areas, others en route to Baghdad.
Closure of the border would sever a lifeline for the region in northern Iraq and step up efforts by Turkey, Iran and the Iraqi government to isolate it.
But the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is gambling that its three main trade partners will be reluctant to impose a blockade that would put billions of dollars in trade at risk and could hurt all sides involved.
“We send about 100 packed trucks a day to Baghdad,” said Hani Anas, a trader standing by rows of steel rods stacked near the border. “Iraq will suffer as well.”
It is a risky gamble for a region that is heavily dependent on food imports and oil exports, via a pipeline that passes through Turkey.
The undermining of its economy could deal a heavy blow to its chances of survival as an independent state if it pushes ahead with breakaway moves.
The outcome of the standoff could also have repercussions far beyond the immediate region as Iraqi Kurdistan produces about 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day — 15 per cent of Iraqi output and around 0.7 per cent of global oil production.
The KRG has not taken any formal steps to break away from Iraq since the Kurds overwhelmingly backed independence in a referendum on September 25, but has scheduled regional presidential and parliamentary elections for November 1. “If Baghdad tries to hurt us it will hurt itself,” said Soran Aziz, vice president of the chamber of commerce and industry in the Kurdish administrative capital Erbil.
“If borders are closed with neighbouring countries it will have a limited impact on us,” he added. “If an economic blockade impacts us by 1 per cent, it will impact them by 10 per cent.”
Baghdad opposes Kurdish independence because it wants to hold Iraq together. Iran and Turkey fear secession would encourage their own Kurdish populations to press for a homeland, and Washington worries that the tensions will damage unity in the fight against IS.
Iraqi Kurdistan is certainly vulnerable over its economy.
Apart from oil, it is largely dependent on agriculture, tourism, and cement and steel exports to Baghdad and other Iraqi cities.
But some Iraqi officials acknowledge that blocking the main trade route between Iraqi Kurdistan and other parts of Iraq would hit not just the Kurds’ economy.
Turkish exports to Iraq this year had by the end of August reached $6.4 billion. “This key trade route is a lifeline for all of us and we will make sure to keep it operational, no matter what levels of disagreements,” said Waleed Mohammed, an adviser to the Iraqi trade ministry.
Near the border with Turkey, traders seem confident as they work their cell phones, dealing with orders.
Around them, labourers load crates of powdered milk and potatoes on to trucks that haul average loads of 27 tonnes to Baghdad and elsewhere.
“There is no way anyone can close down the border. One truck arrives and then heads to Baghdad, another one goes the other way,” said Samer Rushdi, a trader. — Reuters
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