Pascale Trouillaud -
Until recently, Brazil’s scandal-plagued and deeply unpopular President Michel Temer looked finished, but there is growing speculation he may attempt to seek a new term.
The centre-right leader, who came to power after the impeachment of his leftist predecessor Dilma Rousseff, always said he would be just a placeholder.
Again on Friday, he insisted, “I won’t be a candidate.”
“We should not really believe him,” said David Fleischer, professor emeritus at the University of Brasilia. “Everyone knows Temer is very actively trying to consolidate his candidacy.”
With less than eight months before the October election, Temer had long been counted out of the running. Even now, barely anyone can imagine him winning.
“His government is extremely unpopular and it has all its corruption accusations against it,” Fleischer said.
But a few elements are going the 77-year-old’s way.
One is the weakness of relatively centrist candidates in a field currently led by leftist ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and far-right former army officer Jair Bolsonaro.
In addition, Lula may hold an easy first place in polls, but he is attempting to overturn a 12-year prison sentence for corruption and may well end up not running. Bolsonaro, a fan of the military dictatorship that ended in 1985, may also be weaker than he looks, with polls showing him peaking.
Environmentalist Marina Silva and Sao Paulo state Governor Geraldo Alckmin are among the others vying in third place but none is anywhere near dominant.
Temer’s main claim to success so far has been overseeing a gradual recovery of the economy.
He also received an unexpected shot of energy from his decision this month to crack down on Rio de Janeiro’s crime gangs by putting the army in charge of local police.
That gave Temer a chance to play the strongman and bask in the sensation of being associated with a popular policy.
Immediately, there was speculation that Temer’s thinking behind the military intervention was that he might boost his election hopes.
Temer denies politicking, saying “there was nothing electoral in this decision.”
“Temer is trying to get a boost to be elected president. He’s trying to take votes away from Bolsonaro,” Lula said.
Temer, portrayed this month as a money-grabbing vampire, would only have the slimmest of chances, analysts say.
“He could run but I don’t see him getting elected,” Sezerino said, citing Temer’s “lack of charisma”.
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