NEW YORK: Democrat Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 12 percentage points nationally among likely US voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll that also showed the number of persuadable voters had shrunk compared with four years ago.
The September 3-8 poll, released on Wednesday, found 52 per cent of likely voters planned to support Biden, while 40 per cent would back Trump. Three per cent said they would vote for another candidate, and just 5 per cent said they remained undecided with less than two months to go until the November 3 presidential election.
The survey showed the number of voters who had not yet backed a major-party candidate to be less than half of what it was in 2016, and that Biden currently had the advantage in securing the national popular vote. Even if the remaining undecided voters threw their support behind Trump, the poll showed, he would still lose the popular vote to Biden.
Trump can still win re-election, however, without winning the national popular vote. US presidential elections are not decided by the national vote but rather who wins the Electoral College, a contest based on a tally of wins from state-by-state contests.
Four years ago, Democrat Hillary Clinton got almost 3 million more votes than Trump, only to see her Republican rival narrowly win the Electoral College and the presidency. This was the first time the Reuters/Ipsos poll measured support for the 2020 candidates among likely voters.
When measured by registered voters who include those less likely to vote, Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points, versus his 7-point lead in a similar poll last week.