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EDITOR IN CHIEF- ABDULLAH BIN SALIM AL SHUEILI

Afghanistan at crossroads as poll season starts

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After months of delays and political bickering, Afghanistan is preparing for presidential elections which could see more of the bloodshed and fraud allegations that have marred previous polls. Campaign season begins in earnest on Sunday, exactly two months ahead of the poll, when 17 hopefuls will try to beat President Ashraf Ghani as he seeks a second term.


The cast of contenders — all men —includes a former warlord accused of killing thousands, the brother of a mujahideen icon, and a bitter rival seeking retribution.


Here is a look at the key issues:


What’s at stake?: This year’s election comes at a crucial moment. The Taliban, who are not taking part, think they are on the verge of beating the United States after nearly 18 years of war. The US is negotiating for a deal that would see foreign forces pull out of the country in return for various Taliban security guarantees, including a pledge that Afghanistan will not become a safe haven for terror groups.


Washington wants a deal by September 1, but this is unlikely given the complexities and sticking points involved. This means Afghanistan’s next president must figure out how to deal with the Taliban, who steadfastly have refused to negotiate with the Kabul government.


It is unclear what a final peace settlement could look like. Everything, potentially, could be up for grabs: women’s rights, personal freedoms, the constitution itself.


Many Afghans fear a quick return to Taliban rule or a spiralling civil war. Afghanistan’s lacklustre economy and entrenched corruption will likely take a back seat to the pressing security situation.


The kick off to the campaign season also comes amid a wider surge in violence in Kabul and around Afghanistan.


At least 10 people were killed and 41 others wounded by a series of blasts that rocked the Afghan capital early on Thursday, while further east in Nangarhar province nine family members were killed as they headed to a wedding.


What’s the process?: Unless a candidate wins a majority on September 28, voting will go to a second round, probably in late November. One crucial issue is that the elections happen at all. They have already been postponed twice this year and further delays could lead to more unrest.


Some observers have said this year’s electoral delays were to make room for US-Taliban talks, but more likely it was down to bungling by election officials. Some nine million people have registered to vote but allegations persist that some of those are “ghost” voters. Some candidates have already threatened to boycott the election because they say Ghani is using his position to gain an unfair advantage.


Who are the frontrunners?: Top among Ghani’s rivals is Abdullah Abdullah, currently serving as the president’s own chief executive under an awkward power-sharing arrangement brokered by the US after the fraud-tinged 2014 election.


Abdullah, who also lost against Hamid Karzai in 2009, has a Pashtun father and a Tajik mother, so is likely to draw support from both groups — a key factor in a nation riven by regional and ethnic rivalries.


Ghani, a Pashtun, appears to have also learned the importance of an inclusive cabinet with all the main Afghan ethnicities — and women. Observers say the race is his to lose. Another frontrunner is Mohammad Haneef Atmar, Ghani’s former national security adviser, and the former interior minister under Karzai. Other contenders include Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a former warlord accused of war crimes and British-educated Ahmad Wali Massoud, the brother of legendary anti-Soviet and anti-Taliban fighter Ahmad Shah Massoud.


What do Afghans think?: Many are despondent about the prospects of a fair election, and worry about a repeat of the sort of violent attacks on previous polls by the Taliban and other insurgent groups trying to undermine Afghanistan’s fragile democracy.


The parliamentary elections last October were plagued with problems with voting machines, voter registrations and allegations of ballot stuffing. — AFP


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