Finally, the dreadful and sad year of 2020 has left us behind! It was full of sad events, the psychological breakdown of many, the sudden and unnecessary deaths of others infected with the Covid-19 virus, and the subsequent worsening of the economic situation worldwide. So it is no wonder that we were all waiting for the end of the year, hoping for some peace of mind and that everything will be over soon... and eventually 2021 will be better!
In fact, we are fortunate that we are not the first to face this ancient threat, but we are the first generation ever when a vaccine could be produced so quickly, so it is a truly unprecedented miracle that this was achieved. Thus, when the virus is surrounded by people who have been vaccinated, surely there is nowhere to go and the outbreak will be reduced. Of course, there are different estimates of the percentage of the population that will need to be vaccinated against the coronavirus, and there is no doubt that at least 50 per cent of the population will need the vaccine before reaching community immunity (herd immunity).
It is important to realise that this is not an easy thing due to the huge number of people who will need the vaccine, which comes in two doses, and we do not forget that it is likely that people will need to be convinced to accept the vaccination as well. So, looking at many countries, I think that all of this will take at least nine months and maybe a year. Interestingly, maybe we will reach the end of 2021 and it will be the beginning of 2022 before we reach the threshold of community immunity through vaccination. The paradox is here at the same time and while we do all this the virus is still spreading!
It is true that a lot has changed in 2020 from eating in restaurants and travelling by plane and from just embracing those we love and appreciate. The measures followed at the time for health safety have changed our daily life so that community immunity is reached, whether through the spread of the virus or immunisation. However, wearing of masks and social distancing in the short term will remain whatever in all cases, taking into account how the society will be affected psychologically, socially and economically in the long term. What I mean here is that we have thousands of children who study informally outside of school and there are a lot of commercial activities that have been permanently closed or slowed down, in addition to other negative consequences as a result of the pandemic, so such improvement in many of these things and dealing with them will undoubtedly take time. In view of past epidemics and their analyses, we can call this time-frame the intermediate pandemic period, meaning — if I am correct to say — the recovery may take a year or two. Then at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, we enter a (post-pandemic period) where something similar to what happened in the 1920s is likely to happen.
We already see vaccines launched and distributed in most countries and obviously their availability will increase in this New Year. Does this mean the life returning to normal? Do we feel safe enough to travel, board, attend parties, or enjoy a vacation and attend crowded places? In fact, we all know that the answers will differ from one person to another. It is possible that one factor is the time it takes for a city or country to vaccinate at least 70 per cent of people and of course the other will be how comfortable you are at taking the risk! Of course, there are also uncertainties that I do not try to predict here, such as whether there is a dangerous viral mutation that will make vaccines less effective, or that more people will refuse vaccination than expected.
Moreover, here it must be emphasised that the vaccines of Moderna and Pfizer require two injections three or four weeks apart, so the only people who are fully protected at this stage will be those who have received the second vaccine dose, while for example other vaccines, such as AstraZeneca, require longer interval between doses. It will take at least a month (if not more) to know the full effect of each person vaccinated. Therefore, it is a good idea to plan to have face masks as part of our lives for a while during this year.
At the end, vaccinations are not the magic solution; a certain level of precautions must be maintained for months. This also depends on vaccines that prevent transmission of the virus, which have not yet been proven. As the vaccination takes effect, what we can do will change, but the transformation will be slow... So we do not have to squirm, but rather prepare for all of that.
Dr Yousuf Ali al Mulla, MD, Ministry of Health, is a medical innovator and educator. For any queries regarding the content of the column he can be contacted
at: dryusufalmulla@gmail.com
Dr Yousuf Ali al Mulla
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