Where could the Tropical system land?

Muscat: As weather experts at Oman Met (DGMET) are watching closely the condition of Arabian Sea and the tropical system that has been formed into a tropical depression southeast of the Arabian Sea, the Observer caught up with a meteorologist to look at the various options of expected directions of the tropical system in the forthcoming days if it is to make a landfall.

“We at Oman Meteorology are watching the conditions over the Arabian Sea 24/7 and the latest charts indicate that the center of the system is moving towards west to northwest direction.  The system is expected to intensify further in the next 24 hours,” explained Abdullah al Balushi, Chief of Meteorological Quality & Safety.

The National Multi Hazard Early Warning Center (NMHEWC) had reported the maximum average winds speed around the center had been ranging between 17 to 27 knots and is located at latitude 67.5E and longitude 11.7N.

The NMHEWC has already forecast for Monday October 8th to be mainly clear skies over most of the Sultanate with chances of late night to early morning low level clouds or fog patches along the coastal areas of the Arabian Sea.   On Tuesday the 9th of October 2018 it is predicted to be mainly clear skies over most of parts of the Sultanate with chances of advection of cloud bands associated with the tropical system combined with isolated rain and fresh wind which will cause an increase in wave height may reach 3 meters.

Tropical System is sensitive and meteorologists have two ways to follow up to predict the weather and they are by using all the available data and further verify with the numerical weather predictions.

“Usually, after continuous verification of all weather data we can reach to a better weather forecast.  This is being done regularly.  A change in observation will bring the change in forecast as well,” said the meteorologist.

When asked where in Oman it could land he said, “So far the main two scenarios in term of Numerical Weather Prediction are – one which could see the system head towards the Gulf of Aden and the other scenario where it could land on the area between Yemen and Oman border”.

“There is also a third option that could mean the system could go to Dhofar, then move toward Wusta with slight influence to the northern parts of Oman which may give some rain showers.  But the two strong scenarios are option one and two,” he pointed out.

“Within coming 48 hours the picture will be clearer and we will be more confidence about the forecast, so let wait and watch,” he added.