Ben Sheppard -
He is 93, in failing health and has enemies on almost every side, but President Robert Mugabe used his TV address on Sunday to display the survival skills of one of the world’s wiliest politicians. With the generals who threaten his grip on power sitting to his side, Mugabe blithely ignored demands he quit — and even declared he would preside next month over his party’s congress, despite the fact it had just sacked him.
Analysts gave quiet respect for Mugabe’s tactical skills, even if they worry his latest manoeuvres have brought tensions in Zimbabwe that much closer to boiling point.
“It might be that he feels he has not secured the guarantees that he feels are necessary for his own immunity and for his family,” said Piers Pigou, an analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
“Mugabe is a tactician, a strategist. He might be able to delay and generate a certain amount of obstruction” before agreeing to step down on his terms.
After two rounds of talks with the generals who seized power last week, it was widely expected that Mugabe would resign.
Instead he delivered a slow and rambling speech in which he insisted the military takeover was “not a threat” to his rule.
The crisis erupted on November 13 over a factional squabble to succeed the ailing president.
Mugabe’s wife Grace, 52, secured prime position to succeed him, sidelining the vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was fired.
It now appears the military has been continuing efforts to ease Mugabe from power.
“It’s a matter of when. He might not leave tomorrow or next week, but he is clearly at the end of his political life,” said Eldred Masunungure, a politics lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe.
Analysts have suggested that Mugabe’s infamously stubborn character could also be hindering the conclusion of a deal between the president and the army.
Shadrack Gutto, director of the Centre for African Renaissance Studies at the University of South Africa, warned that Mugabe would likely be negotiating hard to protect himself and his family from prosecution.
“Mugabe needs to take protection for himself — he carried out serious crimes since the 1980s and he has stolen a lot of resources and sent them abroad. His wife Grace has been the one spearheading most of that.”
Mugabe’s reputation has been tarnished by his authoritarian instincts, rights abuses and economic record.
“He has very little room to move at the moment,” added Gutto.
— AFP
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