IMD predicts near-normal monsoon this year

New Delhi: Monsoon will ne near-normal this year with an expected rainfall of 96 per cent, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday
“India is going to have a near-normal monsoon in 2019 as the south-west monsoon is likely to be normal,” said M Rajeevan Nair, Secretary Ministry of Earth Sciences.
He said that over a long term average, they expect 96 per cent rainfall of 89 cm.
“Al Nino will start weakening by June, which will ensure that good rainfall is not affected,” explained Nair.
According to the latest global forecasts, weak El Nino conditions are likely to persist this summer.
“We expect a uniform distribution of monsoon across the country…it will be well distributed. This will be a good year for farmers,” added the Secretary.
In 2018, against a forecast of 97 per cent long term average, India had recorded 91 per cent rains at the end of July-September monsoon season.
IMD predicted the monsoon to be “near-normal” this year with an expected rainfall of 96 per cent, on the other hand, the Skymet Weather has claimed that the monsoon is likely to be “below normal” to the extent of 93 per cent.
Speaking to IANS, Mahesh Palawat, Vice president Meteorology and Climate Change at the Skymet Weather, said the impact of El Nino will be more in June and July, but it will reduce by August and September.
“According to Skymet Weather, the monsoon is likely to be “below normal” to the tune of 93 per cent, with an error margin of +/-5 per cent, of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” he said.
While the IMD has predicted two per cent probability of “excess” rainfalls and 10 per cent for “above normal” rainfall, the Skymet predicted zero per cent chances for both.
“In the second half of July, the rainfall will go up. There is a possibility of good rains in August and September, but it will not be able to cover up the deficiency of June and July. The impact of El Nino will be more in June and July, it will reduce by August and September as it will be revolving. Currently, the chances of El Niño conditions are 80 per cent, which will decline, but would remain as high as 60 per cent by mid-monsoon,” he said.
The IMD, however, predicted that the developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean will start weakening after June.
El Niño is a part of a routine climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise to above-normal levels for an extended period of time. It influences temperature and rainfall across the global.
The IMD said monsoon this year is predicted to be “near normal” with the well-distributed rainfall expected to be around 96 per cent, at a moderate error estimate of plus-minus five per cent of the Long Period Average. IMD Director General K J Ramesh ruled out any adverse impact of ‘El Nino’ on the monsoon such as erratic rainfall.