G20 leaders more preoccupied by domestic woes

Peter Apps -

World leaders have no shortage of global issues to discuss at this week’s Group of 20 summit but, perhaps more than ever before, most will be more focused on their own domestic politics than on international diplomacy.

The two priorities, of course, remain indissolubly linked. For US President Donald Trump, success on trade and holding US allies and potential foes to account feels central to his prospects for re-election in 2020. Indeed, it is possible, perhaps even likely, that he is paying more attention to the first televised debates between his potential Democratic Party challengers than anything taking place in Osaka on Friday and Saturday.

Trump and his team also remain highly focused on Iran, in a confrontation that — potentially like the G20 — increasingly demonstrates just how much risk the United States and its potential foes are willing to take to appear strong, even at the risk of hugely damaging mutual consequences.

Trump would much rather have Americans talk about almost anything other than the upcoming testimony of Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller, who has said he will speak in front of a July Congressional committee on his investigation into potential Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

But the US president’s reluctance not to show weakness or insecurity will be more than matched by those of his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Xi will insist on avoiding discussion of any domestic dissent, particularly recent unrest in Hong Kong over a law that would allow Hong Kong residents to be extradited to the mainland.

China has said it will not allow the protests to be discussed at the G20, but the presence of protesters outside the summit may make that implausible. Many foreign states are increasingly concerned at a deteriorating rights picture in China, including the detention of more than one million ethnic Uighurs in “re-education camps”. Several Western leaders, perhaps including Trump, may wish to raise it with Xi.

Several of those Western leaders, however, must feel their own power ebbing fast. British Prime Minister Theresa May has announced she will be stepping down. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has quit as leader of Germany’s Christian Democrats, and faces questions about her health. French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau both face difficult domestic headwinds at home and are in danger of losing their next election. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s grip looks dented after his AK Party was defeated in a rerun of local elections in Istanbul.

Even among those who lack any clear imminent threat, the level of paranoia is striking.

In principle, the insecurity among G20 leaders could make the summit go much better. The Western leaders already on their way out may be most concerned about their legacies, while those still battling to retain their position have an even more vested interest in a world and society that works. Much of the discontent driving current unrest comes from economic hardship, and the G20 was devised primarily to make the global economy work better.

There are some fronts on which this might be true. Shortly after the G20 summit, Trump will visit Seoul, where South Korean President Moon Jae-in appears determined to arrange another meeting between the US president and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Moon’s determination to ensure there is US-North Korean dialogue is controversial in all three countries, but it has reduced the immediate risk of a major war on the peninsula Abe has been similarly focused on keeping

Trump connected to the broader international system. — Reuters