Kelly Olsen -
Less than six months ago Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appeared poised to stay in power until 2021, becoming Japan’s longest-serving leader.
Now, he finds himself fighting for his political life or, in the words of one observer, scrambling to crawl out of a “hell hole”.
A combination of factors, including political scandals, arrogance, loss of trust and tone deafness to voters’ everyday concerns at the expense of a nationalist agenda have clipped Abe’s wings.
But analysts say Japan’s comeback kid has an ace up his sleeve. There is no one else.
“It’s the absence of an alternative political choice either outside the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) or quite frankly within it” that keeps him afloat, said Brad Glosserman, a Japan expert at think tank Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu.
The main opposition Democratic Party’s (DP) existence is at stake. And while the LDP has no shortage of prime ministerial hopefuls, none of them are seen as strong enough to take on Abe.
Many have swooned over the potential of charismatic Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, but she is just a year into the job and has her hands full with the 2020 Olympics.
Trouble brewed slowly but anger spilled over last month when surveys showed a decline in support, with Abe’s approval ratings reaching their lowest point over more than four years in office.
Abe wielded influence for a close friend in a business deal, which was a key factor, as were other scandals including at the defence ministry headed by his protege Tomomi Inada.
Just before local elections in early July for Tokyo’s municipal assembly, he alienated voters by shouting down hecklers at a rally. The result: the LDP suffered a historic drubbing.
Veteran analyst Minoru Morita, who came up with the “hell hole” analogy, said he also suffers from weariness with a long-serving leader.
Still, Morita believes if Abe can get through the next year and stand for re-election as party leader in September 2018, he is likely to win as he has more internal support than even leading challengers.
“In the end he may be able to continue in the sense that there just isn’t anybody else,” said Tokyo resident Ayumi Aratake.
Abe last week reshuffled his cabinet ministers, a typical move by Japanese prime ministers in trouble.
Publicly he has replaced swagger with humility. —AFP
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