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EDITOR IN CHIEF- ABDULLAH BIN SALIM AL SHUEILI

Do Golden Globe wins translate into Oscars?

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Javier Tovar and Laurent Banguet -




With the Golden Globes done and dusted, Hollywood moves swiftly along to the crown-jewel of its award season: the Oscars.
Members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences began voting on Monday. Their nominations will be revealed in two weeks’ time.
But are the Globes really a good predictor of the Oscars?
Not so much, say experts.
To be sure, there is expected to be some overlap. Many of Sunday night’s winners and even some of the nominees could feature at the Oscars in late February, including the likes of “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “Green Book,” “Roma,” “A Star Is Born,” “Vice,” “Black Panther,” and “BlacKkKlansman.”
“It’s reasonable to bet that plenty of Oscar voters still have a stack of screeners sitting on the coffee table as you read this,” film critic Alissa Wilkinson said.
“So while they’ve probably watched the favourites by now, a Golden Globes win for an underdog might push a voter to give the film a look before submitting their ballot,” she concluded.
Such could be the case, for example, for “Bohemian Rhapsody,” the commercially successful but critically panned Freddie Mercury biopic that won best drama at the Globes — its marquee award.
Or civil rights dramedy “Green Book,” which picked up awards for best comedy movie, best supporting actor in Mahershala Ali and best screenplay.
“There is no better marketing hook for films that have been in the marketplace for many weeks than a major win at the Globes,” said Paul Dergarabedian, an analyst for industry tracker Comscore.
Overall, though, the numbers are emphatic: the Golden Globes aren’t a reliable predictor for the Oscars, cinema’s most coveted prize.
According to Dergarabedian, historically the Golden Globes have had about a 50 per cent success rate in predicting the Oscar’s best picture.
The numbers are a bit better at picking actors and actresses, though not stunningly. A major reason is that, while the Golden Globes gives out two best picture awards — one for drama and the other for musical or comedy — the Oscar’s has just one.
For Sasha Stone, founder of the Awards Daily website which has reported on ceremonies for the past 20 years, it all boils down to probabilities. “We do not know what the eventual outcome will be in this very unpredictable race.” — AFP



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